財智

2023-03-14

救得了嗎？

　　SIVB出事了，美國政府全力救援，但救得了嗎？先看美政府怎救。

　　美儲局周日（12日）出了如下聲明：

　　To support American businesses and households, the Federal Reserve Board on Sunday announced it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors. This action will bolster the capacity of the banking system to safeguard deposits and ensure the ongoing provision of money and credit to the economy.

　　譯過來就是，會提供足夠資金，給所有合格銀行去支付存款者的提取，以保障經濟和信貸市場運作。

　　錢從何來？是透過個BTFP來。

　　The financing will be made available through the creation of a new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), offering loans of up to one year in length to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions pledging U.S. Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets as collateral. These assets will be valued at par. The BTFP will be an additional source of liquidity against high-quality securities, eliminating an institution’s need to quickly sell those securities in times of stress.

　　譯過來是：成立個Bank Term Funding Program（BTFP），向合資格的、有需要的存貸機構，提供一年期的抵押資金，以免這些存貸機構，在市場急求售資產，而引起金融市場波動。

　　這個想法是很好的，這個BTFP有幾多資金可以去頂這個需急救錢局！

　　美儲局謂，美財政部會自Exchange Stabilization Fund撥出250億美元予BTFP，但市場估這個急救錢是需資2兆美元！！！250億去頂2兆美元局？怕大衞高栢飛也搞不定！

　　喔！會不會這250億只是先頭撥款，繼後有大資金押注？聽好了，以下是美儲局、美財政部和Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation（FDIC）出的聯合聲明：

　　After receiving a recommendation from the boards of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve, and consulting with the President, Secretary Yellen approved actions enabling the FDIC to complete its resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, California, in a manner that fully protects all depositors. Depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13. No losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer.

　　We are also announcing a similar systemic risk exception for Signature Bank, New York, New York, which was closed today by its state chartering authority. All depositors of this institution will be made whole. As with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, no losses will be borne by the taxpayer.

　　譯過來就是，會救，但不會用納稅人的錢來救，即是就是這麼多，或是要多怕也多不了多少，不會傾全國之力去救。於是：存款戶的錢應是安全的，但債主、股東，都不被納入被救之列。

　　如這250億能起到四両撥千斤，起到定海神針作用，真是天佑美國，但如穩不了呢？看圖一美國有18兆美元的存款額。

　　SIVB未出事前是美國第18大銀行（圖二），截至去年底，SIVB的存戶有1700億存在SIVB！這兩周SIVB的存款已被提走了不少，SIVB的現金存量已達負數。但現金存量到負數，並不代表所有存戶已提取了所有的錢，一如有人欠債（存戶）百萬，但袋已清零，此人仍有一百萬元的欠債。

　　SIVB雖然爆煲，但一些大銀行對收購SIVB表示出興趣，有白武士來救，好事。但在2008年3月也有Bear Stearns等機構陷財困，而由美國的大金融機構合併了。但到8月，仍免不了有雷曼倒閉，因為這些機構要倒，是泡沫所然，是個趨勢。

　　滙豐(00005) 就先行軍，用一英鎊收購了SIVB的英國業務，咁平，必然是要孭埋SIVB英國的債。現時看銀行業的資產，不是看你存款有多少（因隨時可以被提出），而是要看貸出去的債能否被收回來。估計SIVB英國的貸出債有55億英鎊，這些債能否被回收，全取決於債仔（多是科技創投）在未來的科研成效，產品可否成金及未來的信貸情況如何（加息？減息？），我看不通。

美加息周期已死

　　上文提及的美儲局、美財政部和FDIC的聲明是如此結語：

　　The U.S. banking system remains resilient and on a solid foundation, in large part due to reforms that were made after the financial crisis that ensured better safeguards for the banking industry. Those reforms combined with today's actions demonstrate our commitment to take the necessary steps to ensure that depositors' savings remain safe.

　　譯過來是：

　　我們自上次金融危機（雷曼爆破）之後已做了不少改進，以保證存戶的存款安全，今次亦如是，存戶的錢是安全的。

　　市場怎解讀？

　　Translation:the Fed's hiking cycle is dead and buried, and here comes the next round of massive liquidity injections. It also means that the Fed, Treasury and FDIC have just experienced the most devastating humiliation in recent history - just 4 days ago Powell was telling Congress he could hike 50bps and here we are now using taxpayer funds to bail out banks that have collapsed because they couldn't even handle 4.75% and somehow the Fed has no idea！

　　美儲局加息周期已死！！！

　　4日前鮑威爾尚向國會聽證會講，可以加息至5厘上。但今時在4.75%的聯邦基金利率水平，SIVB及其他類似銀行，已頂唔順，破產了，美儲局尚要加息？

　　所以美息的加息預期立跌（圖三）。