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08/06/2023 12:06

{Market Preview}Short-term traders should sell bank stocks

[ET Net News Agency, 08 June 2023] The Hang Seng Index closed at 19,177 in the morning
session, down 74 points or 0.39%, with a turnover of HKD 44.06 billion. The Hang Seng
China Enterprises Index closed at 6,492, down 48 points or 0.75%, while the Hang Seng Tech
Index closed at 3,870, down 50 points or 1.29%.
The three most traded stocks on the Hang Seng Index were Tencent Holdings (00700),
Alibaba-SW (09988), and Meituan (03690). Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 330.6, down HKD 5
or 1.49%, with a turnover of HKD 2.314 billion. Alibaba-SW closed at HKD 82.7, down HKD
1.35 or 1.61%, with a turnover of HKD 1.215 billion. Meituan closed at HKD 121.9, down HKD
1.6 or 1.3%, with a turnover of HKD 1.177 billion. The three most traded stocks on the
Hang Seng China Enterprises were Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-SW, and Meituan. The three most
traded stocks on the Hang Seng Tech Index were Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-SW, and Meituan.

"Kingston Lin: If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the Hang Seng Index will
fall below 19,000 points"

The US Federal Reserve will hold a meeting next week to discuss interest rates. After a
sharp rebound earlier, the Hong Kong stock market has slowed down recently, and the total
turnover of the market fell to only HKD 80 billion yesterday. Kingston Lin, a director of
the The Hong Kong Institute of Financial Analysts and Professional Commentators Limited,
told the ET Net News Agency that the Hang Seng Index has encountered initial resistance at
19,400, and he believes that the resistance at 19,500 will be even greater. This is
because the market was previously at a strong support level, and the current trading
volume is low. In addition, the market is waiting for economic data from China and the US,
as well as the results of the Federal Reserve meeting next week. He expects the trading
volume of Hong Kong stocks to remain low before the results of the meeting are announced.
Lin predicts that the Hang Seng Index will fluctuate between 19,000 and 19,500 in the
short term. If the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the Hang Seng Index
will fall below 19,000.

"Lowering the deposit rate will not be effective in stimulating the market"

China's five major state-owned banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
(01398), Agricultural Bank of China (01288), China Construction Bank (00939), Bank of
China (03988), and Bank of Communications (03328), have once again lowered their deposit
interest rates today, with rates for current and 5-year fixed deposits falling by 5 to 15
basis points. Kingston Lin pointed out that lowering deposit rates can help reduce bank
costs, but the main reason is to encourage more funds to flow into the market.
He further pointed out that even with measures to stimulate investment and consumption,
the Mainland China market is not yet active, and without investment targets, it is
difficult for investors to put their funds into the market. Therefore, lowering rates will
ultimately have limited positive effects on banks and the market.
He also mentioned that the recent rebound of Mainland China bank stocks may have been
driven by speculation about the deposit rate cuts, but there may not be further
speculation in the short term. Therefore, after today's announcement of the relevant news,
bank stocks may fall back, and he suggests that those who bet on rebounds may consider
selling to take profits. For the stock prices to rise, a broader market rally to break
through the resistance at 19,500 is needed.

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