[ET Net News Agency, 16 July 2019] Morgan Stanley resumed coverage on Yanzhou Coal
(01171) with an "equal-weight" rating and a target price of HK$8.
The research house sees Yanzhou's current valuation as attractive, trading at an
all-time low and below peer multiples. However, a potential volume miss and delayed coal
ASP pressure are key hurdles for the stock to re-rate.
Morgan expects Yanzhou to achieve strong coal volumes in 2019-21 when production
commences at its Wanfu, Zhuanlongwan, Yingpanhao, and Shilawusu mines, as the government
has accelerated the pace of new mine approvals.
However, it thinks volumes in Inner Mongolia projects could miss the company's guidance
of 5-6mnt net additions, given tighter production controls in the province; Morgan
forecast a 5mnt shortfall.
Morgan forecast Yanzhou's net profit to fall by 3% in 2019 to Rmb8.4bn and then by
another 2% in 2020 to Rmb8.2bn, despite management's upbeat volume guidance. (KL)