[ET Net News Agency, 6 March 2020] Goldman Sachs lowered its target price for China
Mengniu Dairy (02319) to HK$30.9 from HK$31.4 and maintained its "neutral" rating.
The research house believes Mengniu can still achieve a high single-digit organic sales
growth for 2020 post 1Q's disruption. This would come from further market share gain in
the liquid milk segment and product upgrades.
On the margin side, Goldman believes the company would find it difficult to enjoy
further OPM expansion in 2020 given the slowdown in premium products and price discounting
pressure on its GPM. The Bellamy's integration and acquisition of Australia's Lion Dairy
business (expected by the company in mid-2020) would be a key focus for investors in 2020.
Goldman lowered its 2019-21 EPS estimates by 3%/11%/10% mainly to account for impacts
from the divestment of Junlebao and acquisition of Bellamy's, as well as weaker gifting
demand and the associated sales and margin pressure. (KL)