[ET Net News Agency, 17 September 2018] Macau suspended all gaming operations, starting
at 11 p.m. on 15 September as a precaution against super typhoon Mangkhut.
Morgan Stanley believes this could reduce GGR for September, even though pent-up demand
could help the remainder of the month. The research house said loss of two weekend days
(MOP850m each) is roughly 8% of September 2017 GGR of MOP21.4bn.
This could reduce Morgan's forecast of and consensus for September 2018 GGR growth to 7%
YoY (from 15%), to MOP22.9bn. This would also mean that 3Q GGR could be up only 1% QoQ and
12% YoY.
Base in October and 4Q is high. To have more than 10% YoY growth in 4Q, daily GGR of
MOP865m or more is needed, Morgan said.
It said gaming stocks are attractively valued at 12x and 11x EV/EBITDA for 2018 and
2019, respectively, but negative earnings estimate revisions may continue and the last
cycle bottomed at 8-10x EV/EBITDA. (KL)