[ET Net News Agency, 7 December 2018] Nomura lowered its target price for PICC Property
and Casualty (02328) to HK$10.87 from HK$12.19 and maintained its "buy" rating.
The research house expects a 4Q 2018 recovery, with earnings up 46% after the 3Q miss
due to a one-off commission buffer. Nomura expects FY2018 earnings to drop 14% to
CNY163mn, implying 4Q earnings up 46% y-y, thanks to the base effect of the increased tax
rate.
Nomura expects the combined ratio to stabilise at 98% for FY2019 (versus its previous
forecast of 97%), with a higher loss ratio (+0.7pp in FY2019) and lower expense ratio
(-1.0pp in FY2019), on the back of balanced regulations of pricing deregulation and
commission control. (KL)