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01/03/2019

金毛甩毛

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  • 石鏡泉

    石鏡泉

    石鏡泉是經濟通董事,經濟日報研究部門主管,負責研究部門及副刊部的整體發展及管理。石老師擁有逾20年的媒體及出版業經驗,現為《香港經濟日報》、旗下雜誌、及本網站的專欄作家。 此外,石老師曾出版多本有關投資、金融及財富管理的書籍,並經常在不同的投資及財富管理會議及講座中擔任演講嘉賓。


    本欄每日更新

    政經頑石不低頭

  特金會提前結束,沒有會後公布,也沒有聯合記招。金正恩會後隱身,特朗普則有個簡短記招,只透露了一個重要信息,就是「朝鮮要求取消一切經濟制裁,而我們不認為可行」,特朗普的原句是︰“Basically, they wanted the sanctions lifted in their entirety and we couldn't do that,”Trump said.“They were willing to de-nuke a large portion of the areas that we wanted, but we couldn't give up all of the sanctions for that. So we continue to work and we'll see, but we had to walk away from that particular suggestion. We had to walk away from that.”

 

金正恩不可能裸身相許

 

  由於美國不可以取消所有對朝鮮的制裁,所以只可walk(一走了之)。特朗普之所以walk,不再talk,是因為,不要譯了,看特朗普之原話便是︰

 

  “(Kim)wants to de-nuke, but he wants to just do areas that are less important than the areas that we want. We know the country very well, believe it or not, we know every inch of that country,”Trump said, telling reporters he thought the gap between the U.S. and North Korea would be bridged“with time.”

 

  “You always have to be prepared to walk,”Trump said.“I could have 100 percent signed something today-we actually had papers ready to be signed-but it just wasn't appropriate. I want to do it right︰I'd much rather do it right than do it fast.”

 

  “This wasn't a walk away like you get up and walk out. No, this was very friendly-we shook hands,”he said.“When we walked away, it was a very friendly walk.”

 

  如果特朗普在赴特金會之前並不知悉金正恩這個要求時,就是做功課不足,因為金正恩這個要求是簡單明白得不過,蓬佩奧等人及先遣人員與金正恩的先遣人員應一早就要知悉金正恩這要求,並通報特朗普要不要來開會,如果美國先遣人員已通報了特朗普這要求,而特朗普又以為可以臨場勸服金正恩接受仍有經濟制裁、又要先繳械時,就是以為金正恩沒有看歷史,不知道利比亞總統卡特菲在將其核武繳械後就遭「國內民兵」殺死的現實,所以你叫金正恩裸身相許,就有點simple, naive & stupid。

 

  弱國要免被強國恰,有兩個方法︰

 

  ⑴和約

 

  這個金正恩不會太倚賴,因為美伊有核協議,但特朗普一上場就話伊朗不遵守協議而單方撕毀,只不過,歐洲及世界原子能委員會就話伊朗守規矩,但美國話你無就是無,這些條約要來何用?

 

  ⑵留一手

 

  防人之心不可無,如果特朗普慣了單方面毀約時,金正恩留一手是必然的。金正恩認為,北韓在2017年9月後再無核試,2017年11月後再無國際遠程導彈發射試驗,已是很大誠意,因為沒有發射器,多厲害的核彈都只是跛腳鴨。如果金正恩堅持要有揸拿,特朗普則要求全裸,這個差異一日不除,美朝是不可能有協議。

 

蓬佩奧作為媒人真失職

 

  特朗普在記招上亦講了一小節,國務卿蓬佩奧一直是美朝會的特遣部隊,他亦一直表示對今次特金會有信心,但在記招上就自己擺自己上枱,話今次不宜簽約!吓,媒人安排了拜堂,但建議新人不宜洞房!這個媒人真失職。CNBC有如下報道,又是引原文,以免誤解,大家自己去解好了。

 

  Last year's meeting marked the first in-person meeting between a sitting U.S. president and a North Korean head of state.

 

  Trump heralded that agreement as“very comprehensive,”but outside observers played down its importance because of a recurring diplomatic issue with Pyongyang︰North Korea has a different definition for“denuclearization”than others.

 

  Pyongyang has said in the past it may denuclearize only if certain conditions were fulfilled. Those include the U.S. withdrawing troops from South Korea as well as ending the U.S. regional nuclear umbrella, a security arrangement in which Washington promises in-kind retaliation on behalf of close allies if they are attacked with nuclear weapons.

 

  American and North Korean sides still appear far apart on the idea of North Korea getting rid of its nuclear weapons.

 

  “So far, North Korea seems only willing to take measures that limit its nuclear and missile capabilities-it has no indications that it wants to roll back or undercut its existing nuclear arsenal or missile arsenal,”Tong Zhao, a fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, told CNBC on Tuesday.

 

  Reports since the last Trump-Kim summit suggest North Korean forces are continuing to develop missile technology and nuclear weapons in secret facilities. A U.S. intelligence report last month said North Korea was“unlikely to give up”its weapons of mass destruction, missiles or production capability.

 

  CNBC都明白朝鮮的底線和要求,美國情報機構都知道朝鮮不會全盤棄核,蓬佩奧和特朗普為甚麼就沒有了CNBC的觀察力和美情報機構的深喉力?

 

  特金會臨門撻Q,那麼中美貿談又是否會崩?還是美國因失了特金會,而要在習特會上鬆章?懸!

 

轉載自: 晴報

 

 《經濟通》所刊的署名及/或不署名文章,相關內容屬作者個人意見,並不代表《經濟通》立場,《經濟通》所扮演的角色是提供一個自由言論平台。

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