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13/01/2020

Repo魔,市多磨

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  2019年在美金融界,可以稱為Repo年。

 

  Repo是美國的銀行向美儲局的拆息。美儲局一心減息,但2019年9月之後,Repo息一度升上10厘,美股曾因之大挫。之後至今,美儲局都為Repo事頭痛,一旦痛麻了,美股就危了。

 

  這先要從美儲局12月的議息會議紀錄說起,要看原文:

 

  「The manager discussed two operational considerations around policy implementation. The first involved the risk that future Treasury bill purchases could have a larger effect on liquidity in the Treasury bill market in light of expected seasonal declines in bill issuance and the Federal eserve's growing ownership share of outstanding bills. If this risk were to materialize,the FederalReserve could consider expanding the universe of securities purchased for reserve anagement purposes to includecoupon-bearing Treasury securities with ashort time to maturity.」

 

  「Purchases of these short-dated securities would not affect broader financial conditions or the stance of monetary policy. The manager also discussed expectations to gradually transition away from active repo operations next year as Treasury bill purchases supply a larger base of reserves. The calendar of repo operations starting in mid-January could reflect a gradual reduction in active repo operations. The manager indicated that some repos might be needed at least through April,when tax payments will sharply reduce reserve levels.」

 

這個紀錄說明了:

 

  1.美儲局會透過買入票據來放水,以解錢荒;

  2.必要時再用Repo撐住,撐到今年4月,簡單總結,美儲局再QE了。

  2019年1月1日報告,Repo升上6.125厘,是自2001年以來最高的,亦高於美國聯邦基金利率400點子。

 

 

  面對這錢荒,美儲局立即買進了64億美元剛發行的美債,但到1月6日,市場又缺錢,到1月9日,又再缺水。

 

  結果美儲局又再向市場揼水,這說明了甚麼?

 

 

聯儲局投鼠忌器

 

  投機者看準美儲局投鼠忌器,不敢讓股市跌,所以一直借錢來炒,QE如是白粉的話,Repo就是美沙酮,美儲局一定不會讓市場缺水,結果是製造了個勁大的資產泡沫,美儲局一些官員也發言擔心了。

 

  後市會怎樣?美儲局能否永續地揼水?音樂不停,讓股市續升?如有日音樂停了,又或投資者,不是投機者,認為要離場了,股市會怎樣?

 

 

  閣下如何自處?2015年,A股大時代裏,有句話:賺死膽大的,嚇死膽小的,無論你是膽大還是膽小,音樂一停,請離市。

 

 

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