[I-bank focus]HK 2017 home price seen up 5% in 2017 - Morgan

    Morgan Stanley expects HK's price/rental to grow by +5%, +5%, -5% for residential, office and retail in 2017, which is similar to 2016. The research house retained its "attractive" industry view.
  Morgan said In the first eight months of the year, residential prices rose 1% despite weak 1Q. Improved volume and prices were driven by better affordability as prices declined 15% from September 2015 to March 2016 and mortgage rates declined 20bp.
  Office rentals so far this year are up 3% YTD and on track to meet Morgan's estimate of 5% growth; similarly, mall rentals are down 1%.
  Morgan believes residential prices will continue to go up in 2017, due to the low mortgage rate (owing to the low US Fed rate), and favorable demand/supply. The increase in office rentals is due mainly to limited supply (except in Kowloon East), while retail rentals should lag the retail sales decline (especially luxury) over the last 18 months.
  The research house revised its target discount to NAV by roughly 5%, as it believes the real estate industry is more likely in a mid-cycle rather than in a downcycle. The revised target prices and rating are as follows:
  Name                       Rating                     Target Price (Change)
  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  SHK PPT (00016)           Overweight                   HK$150  13%
  Link REIT (00823)         Overweight                   HK$60    0%
  Kerry Properties (00683)  Overweight                   HK$31   11%
  CK Property (01113)       Overweight                   HK$65    7%
  Sino Land (0083)          Overweight                   HK$15.5 11%
  Wharf Holdings (00004)    Overweight                   HK$63    9%
  Champion REIT (02778)     Overweight                   HK$4.7   0%
  Fortune REIT (00778)      Equal-weight                 HK$9.8   0%
  Swire Properties (01972)  Equal-weight                 HK$23.   0%
  New World Dev (00017)     Equal-weight                 HK$10   18%
  Henderson Land (00012)    Underweight to Equal-weight  HK$44   13%
  Hang Lung PPT (00101)     Equal-weight to Underweight  HK$17    0%
  Hysan Development (00014) Underweight                  HK$34   13%
  Hopewell Holdings (00054) Underweight                  HK$25    0%