he US has announced plans to impose tariffs on US$50-60bn of goods imports from China. Morgan Stanley estimated this could weigh down China's export growth by 0.7-0.9ppt, translating into a drag of 0.12-0.14ppt on GDP growth after considering the spillover effects.
The research house believes the response from China will likely remain pragmatic.
Near-term responses could include turning to WTO (World Trade Organization) processes, launching counter investigations, and/or raising tariffs in select sectors, such as agricultural products and transportation equipment, Morgan noted.
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