TC

23/03/2018 17:50

Impact of Sino-US trade dispute manageable for Chinese firms

   Moody's Investors Service said that the US plan to impose tariffs on Chinese imports and China's planned reciprocal tariffs would have a limited effect on Moody's-rated Chinese companies.
  On 22 March 2018, US President Donald Trump announced plans that would impose tariffs on up to US$60 billion in annual Chinese imports. This announcement is the most significant of a series of trade measures undertaken by the US Administration so far.
  In response to the measure, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced plans for reciprocal tariffs on US$3 billion of certain imports from the US.
  Based on Moody's initial assessment, the impact on Moody's-rated Chinese companies would be manageable, because most of these companies rely heavily on domestic markets, and for companies exporting to the US, such exports generally account for only small portions of their total sales.
  Moody's also says that the planned Chinese tariffs on imports from the US will unlikely disrupt the supply chains of Chinese companies.
  The planned US tariffs specifically target high tech sectors in China, including aerospace, information communication technology and machinery. Accordingly, the immediate impact could be material only to the manufacturers and suppliers in these sectors, with sizeable exports to the US market.
  However, the negative impact could be greater, if both the US and China significantly expand tariffs and adopt other material and broad-ranging protectionist measures. In addition, there could be indirect, second-round effects, through supply chains and the respective domestic economies, which would result in a deeper impact.
  The US measures follow a 301 investigation led by the US Trade Representative into China's alleged unfair trade practices with the US. The US Trade Representative will publish a list of targeted products in 15 days, with a 30-day period for public comment.
  Moody's will make a more detailed assessment on the credit implications for Moody's-rated Chinese companies affected by US tariffs, once the extent of tariffs and the type of products are disclosed.

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