HSBC Global Research said the US-China trade war shows no sign of easing. The US has announced plans to put 10% tariffs on US$200bn of Chinese imports, mostly consumer goods, on 24 September. The tariff rate will go up to 25% in January 2019.
Despite more heated rhetoric, China has responded in a measured way to tariffs on additional US$200bn goods.
HSBC lowered its China 2019 GDP forecast to 6.6% from 6.8% given the latest escalation of the US-China trade war, but sees the policy focus shifting from retaliation to reflation, led by infrastructure investment and tax cuts. It believes reforms must also accelerate, as they hold the key to sustainable growth in the medium term.
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