Goldman Sachs estimated US nonfarm payrolls declined by 7.25 million in May (versus consensus of -7.75mn), reflecting continued coronacrisis layoffs partially offset by millions of returning workers.
The research house estimated the unemployment rate rose from 14.7% to 21.5% (consensus is 19.5%), reflecting a technical reclassification of many of the 8.1mn April workers "employed but not at work" as "unemployed" in May, as well as several million net job losses between the survey weeks.
Goldman estimated that average hourly earnings increased 1.5% month-over-month in May and 9.3% year-over-year (versus 1% consensus and 8.5%, respectively) following a 4.7% increase in April, reflecting a continued composition shift towards higher-paid workers and positive calendar effects.
In interpreting the upcoming report (scheduled to report on Friday, US time), Goldman will again pay special attention to the number and share of workers on furlough or temporary layoff. If year-to-date job losses remain concentrated in this segment, it would increase the scope for a more rapid labor market recovery.
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