Goldman Sachs lifted its target price for ZTO Express (02057) to HK$348 from HK$309 and maintained its "buy" rating.
The research house fine-tuned its 2020-22 revenue by 0% to +2% and non-GAAP net profit by 0% to +1%, on slightly higher volume assumptions (+1% to +3% versus prior), and largely unchanged unit economics outlook, where Goldman expects Rmb0.30/0.23/0.26 EBIT per parcel in 2020/21/22 respectively.
Goldman sees divergence in profitability to continue where it expects EBIT per parcel to remain relatively healthy for ZTO at Rmb30c, but (near) loss making for smaller players such as Best Inc./STO Express (Shenzhen code: 002468) (Rmb-9c/Rmb1c respectively).
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