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13/01/2020 10:16

《缸邊隨筆-石鏡泉》Repo魔,市多磨

  《缸邊隨筆》2019年在美金融界,可以稱為Repo年。
  Repo是美國的銀行向美儲局的拆息。美儲局一心減息,但2019年9月之後,
Repo息一度升上10厘,美股曾因之大挫。之後至今,美儲局都為Repo事頭痛,一旦痛
麻了,美股就危了。
  這先要從美儲局12月的議息會議紀錄說起,要看原文:
 
  「The manager discussed two operational
considerations around policy 
implementation﹒ The first involved the 
risk that future Treasury bill purchases
could have a larger effect on liquidity 
in the Treasury bill market in light of 
expected seasonal declines in bill 
issuance and the Federal Reserve’s 
growing ownership share of outstanding 
bills﹒If this risk were to materialize, 
the FederalReserve could consider 
expanding the universe of securities 
purchased for reserve management 
purposes to includecoupon-bearing 
Treasury securities with ashort time to 
maturity﹒」
  「Purchases of these short-dated
securities would not affect broader
financial conditions or the stance of
monetary policy﹒ The manager also 
discussed expectations to gradually
transition away from active repo 
operations next year as Treasury bill
purchases supply a larger base of 
reserves﹒ The calendar of repo operations
starting in mid-January could reflect a
gradual reduction in active repo 
operations﹒ The manager indicated that
some repos might be needed at least 
through April,when tax payments will 
sharply reduce reserve levels﹒」
 
這個紀錄說明了:
 
  1﹒美儲局會透過買入票據來放水,以解錢荒;
  2﹒必要時再用Repo撐住,撐到今年4月,簡單總結,美儲局再QE了。
  2019年1月1日報告,Repo升上6﹒125厘,是自2001年以來最高的,亦高
於美國聯邦基金利率400點子。
  面對這錢荒,美儲局立即買進了64億美元剛發行的美債,但到1月6日,市場又缺錢,到
1月9日,又再缺水。
  結果美儲局又再向市場揼水,這說明了甚麼?
 
*聯儲局投鼠忌器*
 
  投機者看準美儲局投鼠忌器,不敢讓股市跌,所以一直借錢來炒,QE如是白粉的話,
Repo就是美沙酮,美儲局一定不會讓市場缺水,結果是製造了個勁大的資產泡沫,美儲局一
些官員也發言擔心了。
  後市會怎樣?美儲局能否永續地揼水?音樂不停,讓股市續升?如有日音樂停了,又或投資
者,不是投機者,認為要離場了,股市會怎樣?
  閣下如何自處?2015年,A股大時代裏,有句話:賺死膽大的,嚇死膽小的,無論你是
膽大還是膽小,音樂一停,請離市。《資深投資者 石鏡泉》

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