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缸邊隨筆 - 石鏡泉

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2024-04-12

美3月CPI爆表

#財金大勢 #美國經濟 #CPI #通脹

　　昨(11日)文已預期美3月CPI爆表，果如是，預期是基於美通脹有3個主要推手：

　　1. 油價，特別是油站汽油價；

　　2. 屋租；

　　3. 就業和工資。

　　昨文只談油價，這是顯而易見的，只要細觀察便知（圖一），圖一是有下文的。油站油價資料是至4月，升速遠拋離3月所報的通脹數據。到報4月通脹數據時，會將這個拋離補回來，即是4月通脹(在5月公布)，在這項目是會升的。

美通脹升出乎預料

　　3月美通脹爆升，還有個更深層意義，因為這個通脹是月比、年比都升（圖二），是出乎市場預料。為甚麼這次超出預料是重要？彭博的經濟師Anna Wong有這評語：

　　「March is a month where the CPI enters a seasonal window that's favorable for disinflation. The fact that core CPI remained the same in March as February-even if it maps to about 0.3% in core PCE inflation terms - is not a good development. This report more than February's is likely to feed Fed concern that progress on disinflation is stalling-even though the core print for the two months was the same。」

　　簡言之是：3月是季節性上有利通脹回下，但當通脹應跌而不跌，可能反映通脹已止跌。

　　彭博的息率策略家Ira Jersey則謂：

　　「The 3-month annualized core CPI climbing to 4.5% is going to keep early Fed-cut calls muted coming up. 50 bps of cuts in 2024 currently being priced may not occur until later in the year. The yield curve flattening isn't surprising as we continue to price out early and deep cuts。」

　　「The timing of 2024 rate-cut expectations are front of mind for market participants with linear markets pricing just below even odds of a first cut in July. Still the stickiness of 'supercore' inflation now north of 8% on a 3-month annualized basis may continue to put upward pressure on expectations of the Fed's terminal floor。」

　　「A retest of 4.51% is nearly assured with the higher-than-expected CPI. If that doesn't hold 4.7% is the next stopping spot for the 10-year yield。」

　　簡譯過來是一句：息升啦！

　　她更指出(警告？)10年美債息會見4.51%，如仍不止於此水平，便會上見4.71%。4.51%和4.71%的10年債息是甚麼樣水平？看圖三。