BofA Merrill Lynch said a US-China trade deal is easy to hope for, but hard to come by. The expectation of a partial deal between the US and China to be reached in October has been rising.
But the research house remains skeptical that anything material will take place soon, given the recent trade delegation going to DC is only led by a deputy director at the Central Financial Working Group (headed by Liu He), without the company of the minister or deputy minister from the Ministry of Commerce.
BofAML thinks that it implies that there is still a long way to go before specific discussions about articles in a potential deal. It said the agricultural product order that China made from the US is a nice gesture to keep the conversation going, but China is unlikely to back down from their demand for full removal of additional tariffs to reach a deal.
Meanwhile, even if a trade deal with China could help deliver some good news during the election cycle, the US side may not be willing to give up too much (especially removing all tariffs), at least not right now.
BofAML said both sides have not surpassed the pain threshold in their respective tolerance range.
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