Morgan Stanley lowered its 2019 Hong Kong real GDP growth forecast to -0.8% (from -0.3%) in view of the weaker-than-expected growth performance in the past two months.
The research house expects growth to drop to a post-2009 low of -2% in 2H (versus 0.5% in 1H) before normalizing to 0.8% in 2020 (versus 1.0% previously), as the government's supportive measures filter through and headwinds partially fade.
The 2019 Policy Address provided some measures to support property demand and livelihoods, but that may not be able to fully offset near-term growth headwinds from both external and domestic sources, Morgan said.
It believes the latest policies should help secondary volume somewhat but Morgan kept its forecast of a 10% decline in residential prices (measured by CCL) intact. This is measured from the peak in June 2019 until 1Q 2020 (now -5%).
全新節目《說說心理話》青少年不可以戀愛！？真實個案講述驚心動魄經歷► 即睇
