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23/03/2023 12:13

{Market Preview}Expectation management from Powell


[ET Net News Agency, 23 March 2023] The Hang Seng Index closed at 19743 in the morning
session, up 152 points or 0.78%, with a total turnover of HKD 63.029 billion. The Hang
Seng China Enterprises Index closed at 6701, up 61 points or 0.92%, while the Hang Seng
Tech Index closed at 4074, up 64 points or 1.62%.
The three most actively traded stocks on the Hang Seng Index were Tencent (00700),
Alibaba-SW (09988), and Meituan (03690). Tencent closed at HKD 366.6, up HKD 19.4 or
5.59%, with a turnover of HKD 81.04 billion. Alibaba-SW closed at HKD 84.35, up HKD 1.5 or
1.81%, with a turnover of HKD 18.55 billion. Meituan closed at HKD 132.2, up HKD 1.9 or
1.46%, with a turnover of HKD 15.48 billion. The three most actively traded stocks on the
HSCEI were Tencent, Alibaba-SW, and Meituan. The three most actively traded stocks on the
HSTECH were Tencent, Alibaba-SW, and Meituan.

Wong Wai Hong: "The Fed's immediate halt could lead to market speculation"

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25 basis points the night before, but
Chairman Powell did not rule out the possibility of adjusting the target interest rate,
and Treasury Secretary Yellen also indicated that she would not take on the entire burden
of saving banks. The "Powell-Yellen" double blow to market expectations caused the Dow
Jones Industrial Average to fall by 530 points the following night. Hong Kong stocks were
driven by technology stocks this morning, with Tencent (00700) reporting a 15% increase in
network advertising revenue in the fourth quarter of last year, rising more than 5% in the
morning session. Meituan (03690) and Alibaba (09988) also rose, supporting the rise of the
Hang Seng Index.
Wong Wai Hong, chairman and CEO of Anli Holdings stated in an interview with ET Net News
Agency that the recent comments by Powell and Yellen were mainly about expectation
management. If Powell were to signal to the market that there could be a pause in rate
hikes, this could lead to concerns about the banking crisis escalating, which compels the
Fed to act urgently. He believes that the Fed may stop after one more rate hike, as it
needs to observe the progress of the banking crisis. Additionally, the ECB had a recent
rate hike of 0.5%. Due to interest rate differential factors, it is difficult for the Fed
to make a very different decision.

"The poor conditions in the US market are beneficial for the inflow of funds into Asia"

Wong Wai Hong also thinks it is hard to say whether Yellen's stance is that of a "broken
promise" because it is difficult for any government to provide guarantees for all bank
deposits. If the government takes on all the risks, any attacks will indirectly put the
government at great risk. Therefore, Yellen's response is reasonable and the market had
overly high expectations earlier.
Regarding the future of Hong Kong stocks, Wong Wai Hong expects that with the US banking
crisis still unresolved, the Fed may pause its interest rate hikes, which could attract
funds back to Asian stocks. The Hang Seng Index has now fallen below 20,000 points, and it
is unlikely to have much room for further declines.

"It is difficult for Orient Overseas to keep high dividend payout for a long-time"

Orient Overseas (00316) has announced that its net profit for the full year of last year
was US$9.965 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.8%. The company has proposed a final
dividend of US$2.61 per share and an additional special dividend of US$1.95 per share,
totalling US$4.56. It surged more than 20%, reaching a high of HK$157 before slightly
pulling back, and closed at HK$153.9 for the first half of the day. However, Wong Wai Hong
remains cautious about the future dividends of shipping stocks, believing that the high
freight environment is only "limited to the epidemic period" and is a "rare occurrence in
a century" that is unlikely to happen again in the future.
He explained that the recent significant adjustment by Orient Overseas, coupled with the
attractive dividend payout, is reasonable for today's strong rebound. However, he
emphasized that the high dividend payout of Orient Overseas indicates that the company has
not made any further investment decisions and its profitability will primarily be based on
existing businesses. Therefore, he believes that there may be limited growth potential and
the investment value is low. He recommends that investors consider selling it at a high
price.

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