[ET Net News Agency, 18 June 2026] The US Federal Reserve announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged as expected, but removed wording that hinted at rate cuts. The latest interest rate dot plot shows that the median interest rate at the end of this year is 3.8%, higher than the 3.4% forecast in March. Out of 18 officials, 9 believe interest rates should be raised during the year, but Warsh avoided talking about interest rate forecasts. Major Asia-Pacific stock markets were broadly stable, with Japan, Korea, and Taiwan all rising by 1%, but Hong Kong stocks were the weakest. HSI reported 23,900 at midday, down 412 points or 1.7%, with main board turnover approaching HKD 164.5 billion. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index reported 7,982, down 161 points or 2%. The Hang Seng Tech Index reported 4,605, down 63 points or 1.4%.
"Nip Chun Pong: Heavyweight e-commerce stocks drag HSI softer"
After the HSI opened higher this Monday and once regained the 25,000-point mark, the gains narrowed by the close of that day, indicating that the market's upward momentum was gradually weakening. The trend moved downwards over the following few days, and today the lowest even broke through the 24,000 support level, hitting a low of 23,823 points. Nip Chun Pong, the Chief Strategist at Solo Securities, told ET Net News Agency that the soft trend of overseas US stocks directly affected the investment atmosphere in the Hong Kong stock market. As for the interest rate hike expectations that the market is concerned about, it can be seen from the latest dot plot that there is a high probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July, and the possible timing for a rate hike should be after September.
Nip Chun Pong pointed out that heavyweight e-commerce stocks and local property counters being hit by a combination of policies and news were also the main reasons for dragging down the broader market. A few days ago, the State Administration for Market Regulation of Mainland China interviewed several e-commerce enterprises, which inevitably put pressure on the valuations of the major heavyweight constituent stocks of the HSI. Nip Chun Pong believes that if Alibaba (09988) fails to provide relevant evidence subsequently to prove that its promotional content is true, its valuation will likely continue to be under pressure. Meanwhile, Tencent's (00700) weakness is believed to be related to Mainland China prohibiting overseas institutions from illegally soliciting domestic investors and opening accounts.
Nip Chun Pong expressed that it is not difficult for the HSI to rise back to the 24,000 mark in the short term, but the key focus lies on "whether it can successfully stand firm" after regaining it. If the HSI can stabilize at 24,000, the upside resistance level is around 24,800 points; conversely, if the HSI continues to face downward pressure, the next support level will retreat to around 23,500 points.
"Expectations of a rate hike at the end of the year heat up, property counters may continue to fall"
After the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market expects that there is a chance of a rate hike once by the end of the year, which undoubtedly brings a shock to local property and REIT counters. Nip Chun Pong pointed out that the recent trend of property counters has turned weaker, with one of the main reasons being that the property price data previously released by the Rating and Valuation Department had risen for several consecutive months, causing market anxiety about a correction from the property market's high point, which subsequently weakened the upward momentum of local property counters. In addition, as Mainland China strengthens its regulatory grip on cross-border securities and other areas, the investment atmosphere has deteriorated, which has also indirectly dragged down property counters that have always been a favourite among investors from Mainland China.
In terms of individual stocks, CK Asset's (01113) share price has fallen back to the HKD 44 level, approaching the low of around HKD 43 in March this year. Nip Chun Pong warned that if CK Asset falls further below HKD 43, it will technically lose the support of the horizontal trading zone, and the downward adjustment at that time could expand significantly; investors should closely watch whether the HKD 38 level can play a supporting role.
As for Link REIT (00823), which belongs to the REIT counters, the direct impact of the rate hike expectations at the end of the year on its actual short-term business is relatively limited, but the market focus is on whether the Fed is entering a long-term rate hike cycle, which will cause a real blow to Link's long-term financing costs and leasing business. Affected by the previous worse-than-expected results and a lack of positive news, Link's share price has continued to be soft since mid-May; currently, primary attention should be paid to the defensive level of HKD 35, and if it fails to hold, the possibility of further testing the HKD 30 mark cannot be ruled out.
"Nip Chun Pong: Heavyweight e-commerce stocks drag HSI softer"
After the HSI opened higher this Monday and once regained the 25,000-point mark, the gains narrowed by the close of that day, indicating that the market's upward momentum was gradually weakening. The trend moved downwards over the following few days, and today the lowest even broke through the 24,000 support level, hitting a low of 23,823 points. Nip Chun Pong, the Chief Strategist at Solo Securities, told ET Net News Agency that the soft trend of overseas US stocks directly affected the investment atmosphere in the Hong Kong stock market. As for the interest rate hike expectations that the market is concerned about, it can be seen from the latest dot plot that there is a high probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July, and the possible timing for a rate hike should be after September.
Nip Chun Pong pointed out that heavyweight e-commerce stocks and local property counters being hit by a combination of policies and news were also the main reasons for dragging down the broader market. A few days ago, the State Administration for Market Regulation of Mainland China interviewed several e-commerce enterprises, which inevitably put pressure on the valuations of the major heavyweight constituent stocks of the HSI. Nip Chun Pong believes that if Alibaba (09988) fails to provide relevant evidence subsequently to prove that its promotional content is true, its valuation will likely continue to be under pressure. Meanwhile, Tencent's (00700) weakness is believed to be related to Mainland China prohibiting overseas institutions from illegally soliciting domestic investors and opening accounts.
Nip Chun Pong expressed that it is not difficult for the HSI to rise back to the 24,000 mark in the short term, but the key focus lies on "whether it can successfully stand firm" after regaining it. If the HSI can stabilize at 24,000, the upside resistance level is around 24,800 points; conversely, if the HSI continues to face downward pressure, the next support level will retreat to around 23,500 points.
"Expectations of a rate hike at the end of the year heat up, property counters may continue to fall"
After the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market expects that there is a chance of a rate hike once by the end of the year, which undoubtedly brings a shock to local property and REIT counters. Nip Chun Pong pointed out that the recent trend of property counters has turned weaker, with one of the main reasons being that the property price data previously released by the Rating and Valuation Department had risen for several consecutive months, causing market anxiety about a correction from the property market's high point, which subsequently weakened the upward momentum of local property counters. In addition, as Mainland China strengthens its regulatory grip on cross-border securities and other areas, the investment atmosphere has deteriorated, which has also indirectly dragged down property counters that have always been a favourite among investors from Mainland China.
In terms of individual stocks, CK Asset's (01113) share price has fallen back to the HKD 44 level, approaching the low of around HKD 43 in March this year. Nip Chun Pong warned that if CK Asset falls further below HKD 43, it will technically lose the support of the horizontal trading zone, and the downward adjustment at that time could expand significantly; investors should closely watch whether the HKD 38 level can play a supporting role.
As for Link REIT (00823), which belongs to the REIT counters, the direct impact of the rate hike expectations at the end of the year on its actual short-term business is relatively limited, but the market focus is on whether the Fed is entering a long-term rate hike cycle, which will cause a real blow to Link's long-term financing costs and leasing business. Affected by the previous worse-than-expected results and a lack of positive news, Link's share price has continued to be soft since mid-May; currently, primary attention should be paid to the defensive level of HKD 35, and if it fails to hold, the possibility of further testing the HKD 30 mark cannot be ruled out.
