[ET Net News Agency, 11 August 2026] US President Donald Trump's administration released non-farm payroll figures on 7 July showing an unexpected decrease of 23,000 jobs, falling well short of the anticipated increase of 83,000, while the unemployment rate also fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.2%. The data immediately weakened interest rate hike expectations, with Fed funds futures showing that the mainstream forecast for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in September shifted from a 0.25 percentage point rate hike to a pause, with the probability of rates remaining unchanged in September rising to over 55%. Last Friday, the three major US stock indices performed well, with the HSI closing the half-day session at 25,853, up 185 points or 0.7%, breaking through the so-called bull-bear line of the 250-day moving average (around 25,738) once again, with Main Board turnover reaching nearly HKD 14.08 billion. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index stood at 8,587, up 56 points or 0.7%. The Hang Seng TECH Index stood at 4,876, up 17 points or 0.4%.
"Jaseper Tsang: Near-term blue chip performance is mainly divergent"
Amid uncertain external US-Iran relations and rising oil prices, the HSI tested the 26,000 level today before turning lower. Jaseper Tsang, Vice-Chairman of the Hong Kong Institute of Financial Analysts and Professional Commentators Limited, told ET Net News Agency that although the external situation remains volatile, given that the Trump administration is constrained by the Republican Party's need to prepare for the mid-term elections in mid-November and earlier media reports indicating pressure on ammunition stockpiles, the US side is expected to lean towards temporarily delaying hostilities, keeping the overall situation volatile but moving towards peace talks and maintaining a ceasefire. Short-term movements in international oil prices may be volatile, but upside potential is limited, which helps ease selling pressure on Hong Kong stocks at high levels.
Jaseper Tsang believes that in the current macro environment, Hong Kong stocks possess short-term resilience, with immediate support around the 20-day moving average (around 25,417 points), though current upward momentum is insufficient, with short-term resistance expected around 26,300 points. Whether subsequent breakouts can occur depends on the financial results of blue chip stocks, particularly tech stocks, such as Tencent (00700) and JD.com (09618), which are due to release their earnings this week. The market is focusing on the monetization capabilities of these tech platforms after increasing their AI investments, but overall, as blue chip stocks successively announce their earnings, Jaseper Tsang expects individual stock performance to be largely divergent.
"Strict discipline must be maintained when deploying MiniMax"
MiniMax (00100) was previously included in the Stock Connect, registering nearly HKD 2.7 billion in net southbound buying on its very first day of inclusion; it maintained the top spot on the southbound buying list for the following few days, accumulating nearly HKD 6 billion in southbound purchases over several days. Yesterday, HKEX (00388) also announced the inclusion of MiniMax in the "HKEX Technology 100 Index" and the "HKEX Technology and US Technology 100 Index", effective from 13 July.
Jaseper Tsang stated that MiniMax currently enjoys multiple positive catalysts. He explained that being included in the Stock Connect is an important milestone for MiniMax, allowing southbound funds to purchase the shares via Stock Connect, which is favourable for a short-term share price rebound; over the medium to long term, the market generally anticipates that MiniMax and Zhipu have a chance of "blue chip inclusion", becoming the first batch of LLM (Large Language Model) stocks incorporated as Hang Seng Index constituents, providing medium-term support for the share price.
In addition, Jaseper Tsang noted that the LLM market in Mainland China has begun to move away from price wars as its primary commercial tool, citing examples such as DeepSeek's recent plan to raise API service pricing and Alibaba's (09988) "Qwen" open-source model plan to charge large commercial users, shifting Mainland China's AI products towards a technology-driven, differentiated market landscape. Jaseper Tsang indicated that changes in the market environment are favourable for MiniMax's AI models to achieve profitability and move towards turning a profit, with the long-term fundamentals gradually improving.
Regarding deployment, Jaseper Tsang believes MiniMax is poised to retest the 50-day moving average (around HKD 364.12), and upon stabilising at this level, it could make a further push towards HKD 480. Given that MiniMax's share price has recently rebounded, he suggests waiting for the price to pull back to around HKD 300 before making any deployments. However, Jaseper Tsang reminded investors that prices of large model-related stocks remain relatively volatile with high risks, meaning strict adherence to stop-loss and take-profit levels is required during deployment.
"Jaseper Tsang: Near-term blue chip performance is mainly divergent"
Amid uncertain external US-Iran relations and rising oil prices, the HSI tested the 26,000 level today before turning lower. Jaseper Tsang, Vice-Chairman of the Hong Kong Institute of Financial Analysts and Professional Commentators Limited, told ET Net News Agency that although the external situation remains volatile, given that the Trump administration is constrained by the Republican Party's need to prepare for the mid-term elections in mid-November and earlier media reports indicating pressure on ammunition stockpiles, the US side is expected to lean towards temporarily delaying hostilities, keeping the overall situation volatile but moving towards peace talks and maintaining a ceasefire. Short-term movements in international oil prices may be volatile, but upside potential is limited, which helps ease selling pressure on Hong Kong stocks at high levels.
Jaseper Tsang believes that in the current macro environment, Hong Kong stocks possess short-term resilience, with immediate support around the 20-day moving average (around 25,417 points), though current upward momentum is insufficient, with short-term resistance expected around 26,300 points. Whether subsequent breakouts can occur depends on the financial results of blue chip stocks, particularly tech stocks, such as Tencent (00700) and JD.com (09618), which are due to release their earnings this week. The market is focusing on the monetization capabilities of these tech platforms after increasing their AI investments, but overall, as blue chip stocks successively announce their earnings, Jaseper Tsang expects individual stock performance to be largely divergent.
"Strict discipline must be maintained when deploying MiniMax"
MiniMax (00100) was previously included in the Stock Connect, registering nearly HKD 2.7 billion in net southbound buying on its very first day of inclusion; it maintained the top spot on the southbound buying list for the following few days, accumulating nearly HKD 6 billion in southbound purchases over several days. Yesterday, HKEX (00388) also announced the inclusion of MiniMax in the "HKEX Technology 100 Index" and the "HKEX Technology and US Technology 100 Index", effective from 13 July.
Jaseper Tsang stated that MiniMax currently enjoys multiple positive catalysts. He explained that being included in the Stock Connect is an important milestone for MiniMax, allowing southbound funds to purchase the shares via Stock Connect, which is favourable for a short-term share price rebound; over the medium to long term, the market generally anticipates that MiniMax and Zhipu have a chance of "blue chip inclusion", becoming the first batch of LLM (Large Language Model) stocks incorporated as Hang Seng Index constituents, providing medium-term support for the share price.
In addition, Jaseper Tsang noted that the LLM market in Mainland China has begun to move away from price wars as its primary commercial tool, citing examples such as DeepSeek's recent plan to raise API service pricing and Alibaba's (09988) "Qwen" open-source model plan to charge large commercial users, shifting Mainland China's AI products towards a technology-driven, differentiated market landscape. Jaseper Tsang indicated that changes in the market environment are favourable for MiniMax's AI models to achieve profitability and move towards turning a profit, with the long-term fundamentals gradually improving.
Regarding deployment, Jaseper Tsang believes MiniMax is poised to retest the 50-day moving average (around HKD 364.12), and upon stabilising at this level, it could make a further push towards HKD 480. Given that MiniMax's share price has recently rebounded, he suggests waiting for the price to pull back to around HKD 300 before making any deployments. However, Jaseper Tsang reminded investors that prices of large model-related stocks remain relatively volatile with high risks, meaning strict adherence to stop-loss and take-profit levels is required during deployment.
