The global financial markets are facing two critical turning points today (24th): 1) The yen has fallen again to the 158 level, triggering speculation of intervention by the Bank of Japan. 2) The much-anticipated meeting between the Chinese and U.S. leaders, the "Xi-Trump summit," tonight. The developments of these two events will directly affect the recent trend of gold, which is currently in a consolidation phase.
1) The USD/JPY has returned to the 158 level today, with the market wary of another test of the 160 level. Last Friday (18th), when the yen touched this level, the Bank of Japan conducted "rate checks" with several major banks late at night, forcing short sellers to temporarily retreat. That evening, USD/JPY dropped back to the 156 level. However, returning to the 158 level recently seems to indicate the market is ignoring the Bank of Japan's warning. If the Bank of Japan officially enters the market to intervene, the yen is bound to surge sharply in the short term, potentially triggering a massive "yen carry trade unwind." Once such an unwind erupts, global risk assets—especially U.S. stocks and U.S. Treasuries—could face severe sell-offs. Liquidity tightening and market panic would drive large amounts of safe-haven capital rushing into gold, providing strong upward momentum for gold prices. Therefore, closely monitor the Bank of Japan's moves.
2) The first day of the "Xi-Trump summit," scheduled for 9 PM Hong Kong time today, has become the main factor suppressing short-term gold and oil prices. As the market holds optimistic expectations for an agreement from the talks—expected to focus on tariffs and the U.S.-Iran conflict—U.S. stocks remain high, gold prices have dropped to around USD 4,280, and oil prices have retreated from their highs to about USD 90. With only a 32% approval rating, Trump and the Republican Party urgently need to improve their electoral prospects before the November midterm elections. Trump is expected to show a conciliatory stance, hoping for China's support to accelerate a comprehensive ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. If a ceasefire can be smoothly advanced, both oil prices and inflation pressures will decline, and the Fed's rate hike expectations could also cool down.
In summary, gold prices are currently under pressure due to the easing situation in the Middle East. However, if the China-U.S. talks yield no results or if the Bank of Japan suddenly intervenes, gold prices are certain to experience a safe-haven rebound.
*Technical Analysis*
From the daily chart, the 100-day moving average is around USD 4,260, serving as the current key pivot:
If broken: Short-term support will be sought, potentially falling further to USD 4,166.
If held: Accumulating rebound momentum, gold prices may resume an upward trend.
Key price levels to watch:
Resistance above: USD 4,399/4,443/4,511/4,566/4,630
Support below: USD 4,235/4,166/4,120.
*Written at 1:05 PM, September 24, 2026
By Mao Wai Lin, Head of Futures Business and Market Analysis, High Song
*The signed and/or unsigned articles published in ETNet are the authors' personal opinions and do not represent ETNet's stance. ETNet's role is to provide a free platform for discussion.
1) The USD/JPY has returned to the 158 level today, with the market wary of another test of the 160 level. Last Friday (18th), when the yen touched this level, the Bank of Japan conducted "rate checks" with several major banks late at night, forcing short sellers to temporarily retreat. That evening, USD/JPY dropped back to the 156 level. However, returning to the 158 level recently seems to indicate the market is ignoring the Bank of Japan's warning. If the Bank of Japan officially enters the market to intervene, the yen is bound to surge sharply in the short term, potentially triggering a massive "yen carry trade unwind." Once such an unwind erupts, global risk assets—especially U.S. stocks and U.S. Treasuries—could face severe sell-offs. Liquidity tightening and market panic would drive large amounts of safe-haven capital rushing into gold, providing strong upward momentum for gold prices. Therefore, closely monitor the Bank of Japan's moves.
2) The first day of the "Xi-Trump summit," scheduled for 9 PM Hong Kong time today, has become the main factor suppressing short-term gold and oil prices. As the market holds optimistic expectations for an agreement from the talks—expected to focus on tariffs and the U.S.-Iran conflict—U.S. stocks remain high, gold prices have dropped to around USD 4,280, and oil prices have retreated from their highs to about USD 90. With only a 32% approval rating, Trump and the Republican Party urgently need to improve their electoral prospects before the November midterm elections. Trump is expected to show a conciliatory stance, hoping for China's support to accelerate a comprehensive ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. If a ceasefire can be smoothly advanced, both oil prices and inflation pressures will decline, and the Fed's rate hike expectations could also cool down.
In summary, gold prices are currently under pressure due to the easing situation in the Middle East. However, if the China-U.S. talks yield no results or if the Bank of Japan suddenly intervenes, gold prices are certain to experience a safe-haven rebound.
*Technical Analysis*
From the daily chart, the 100-day moving average is around USD 4,260, serving as the current key pivot:
If broken: Short-term support will be sought, potentially falling further to USD 4,166.
If held: Accumulating rebound momentum, gold prices may resume an upward trend.
Key price levels to watch:
Resistance above: USD 4,399/4,443/4,511/4,566/4,630
Support below: USD 4,235/4,166/4,120.
*Written at 1:05 PM, September 24, 2026
By Mao Wai Lin, Head of Futures Business and Market Analysis, High Song
*The signed and/or unsigned articles published in ETNet are the authors' personal opinions and do not represent ETNet's stance. ETNet's role is to provide a free platform for discussion.
