The current actual holding levels of the short-term, medium-term, and long-term securities portfolios in this column are 56.25%, 56.25%, and 35% respectively, with market conditions categorized as neutral, slightly bearish, and significantly bearish. Everyone understands that the purpose of the meeting between the Chinese and U.S. leaders is merely to ease tensions between the two countries; one should not expect significant breakthroughs on major issues, as the United States' determination to curb China's further rise and prevent it from replacing America's global leadership position is unlikely to change. China has repeatedly emphasized its desire for peaceful rise, but the U.S. naturally won't believe it; China demands that U.S. President Trump publicly oppose Taiwan independence, while the U.S. will not allow China to close the gap with America in AI development. As for improving trade relations and ending the Middle East conflict, it is believed that the attitudes of both countries will not change significantly. In fact, even though U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced early yesterday (24th) that the two countries had reached an agreement to extend the trade truce by two weeks, the U.S. dollar futures instead fell to their lowest level of the day.
Looking at the sharp decline of the Hong Kong stock market on Wednesday (23rd), coupled with the subsequent fall in U.S. stocks, the overall market trend turning bearish yesterday morning was within expectations. Although major bullish players quickly entered the market to stabilize order, the rapid decline still caused investors to feel concerned. Objectively speaking, the Hang Seng Index once dropped as low as 24,648, performing indeed worse than expected. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from the low of 24,358 on the 17th of this month, which targets a decline to 24,700, was swiftly reached, certainly a bearish signal for the market outlook. However, since the closing level of 24,761 successfully returned above this key level, the short-term market outlook is not officially bearish yet, and the chance of the index falling back to 24,358 remains relatively small for now. Finally, although we have planned to deploy a second tranche of capital to cautiously re-enter the market on an ultra-short-term to medium-term basis to increase spot holdings, given the situation that has rapidly weakened, for safety's sake, it remains prudent to first clearly observe changes in chart signals before deciding whether to take action.
*Articles signed and/or unsigned published in Economic Times reflect the personal opinions of the authors and do not represent the stance of Economic Times. Economic Times serves as a platform providing free expression of views.
Looking at the sharp decline of the Hong Kong stock market on Wednesday (23rd), coupled with the subsequent fall in U.S. stocks, the overall market trend turning bearish yesterday morning was within expectations. Although major bullish players quickly entered the market to stabilize order, the rapid decline still caused investors to feel concerned. Objectively speaking, the Hang Seng Index once dropped as low as 24,648, performing indeed worse than expected. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from the low of 24,358 on the 17th of this month, which targets a decline to 24,700, was swiftly reached, certainly a bearish signal for the market outlook. However, since the closing level of 24,761 successfully returned above this key level, the short-term market outlook is not officially bearish yet, and the chance of the index falling back to 24,358 remains relatively small for now. Finally, although we have planned to deploy a second tranche of capital to cautiously re-enter the market on an ultra-short-term to medium-term basis to increase spot holdings, given the situation that has rapidly weakened, for safety's sake, it remains prudent to first clearly observe changes in chart signals before deciding whether to take action.
*Articles signed and/or unsigned published in Economic Times reflect the personal opinions of the authors and do not represent the stance of Economic Times. Economic Times serves as a platform providing free expression of views.
