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28/09/2026 11:46

Nine Dragons Paper falls 2% against the market; CICC cuts net profit forecast for the fiscal year and slashes target price by 17%

    Economic Information Intermediary Co., Ltd. special report on the 28th: Nine Dragons Paper (02689) is currently down 2.4%, trading at HK$5.74. The stock has traded approximately 5.92 million shares, involving HK$341.6 million, with a high of HK$5.92 and a low of HK$5.715.

    CICC published a research report stating that Nine Dragons Paper's revenue for the fiscal year 2026 increased 19% year-on-year to RMB 75 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose 102.6% year-on-year to RMB 3.58 billion, in line with the firm's expectations. In the second half, net profit attributable to shareholders declined 18% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 1.61 billion, primarily due to non-operating impairments on U.S. assets. Excluding non-operating impairments, full-year net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 4 billion.

    Operationally, full-year sales volume increased 14% year-on-year to 24.5 million tons, with an average price of around RMB 3,060 per ton, up 4% year-on-year. The firm estimates net profit per ton at approximately RMB 146, an increase of 78% year-on-year. The company has declared a dividend for the first time since the fiscal year 2023, proposing a final dividend of RMB 0.1 per share. The firm estimates the payout ratio to be about 13%; including perpetual bond coupon payments, the total annual payout ratio is approximately 21%.

    The report also mentioned that recently packaging paper manufacturers have collectively issued price increase notices covering product categories such as linerboard, corrugated paper, and white cardboard. Considering that it is currently China's traditional peak season of 'Golden September and Silver October,' the firm is optimistic about the recovery in packaging paper prices, which will drive improved company profitability.

    Taking into account the company's earlier redemption of perpetual bonds leading to higher debt and financial expenses, the firm has lowered its net profit forecast for the fiscal year 2027 by 5% to RMB 4.26 billion and introduced a net profit forecast of RMB 4.455 billion for the fiscal year 2028; the target price has been reduced by 17% to HK$10, maintaining the 'Outperform' industry rating.

    Currently, the Hang Seng Index stands at 24,675, up 164 points or 0.7%, with main board turnover nearing HK$90.4 billion. The China Enterprises Index stands at 8,216, up 50 points or 0.6%. The Hang Seng Tech Index stands at 4,285, down 26 points or 0.6%. (vs)
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