{Economic Information Daily, 2nd Oct} US stocks started October on a rebound. Markets were initially bearish, but dovish comments from the US Federal Reserve provided a boost. Vice Chair Jefferson indicated that officials may need more time and economic data before deciding on the next monetary policy move, suggesting no urgency for another rate hike in the short term. Subsequently, rate futures showed a further decline in the probability of a 0.25% rate hike by the end of October, with the probability of no rate hike rising to 75%. Meanwhile, Anthropic is expected to officially list in mid-November. These positive developments helped US stocks reverse losses on Thursday, with all three major indices closing higher: the Dow rose 20 points to 50926, the Nasdaq gained 10 points to 26871, and the S&P increased 14 points to 7666.
However, Chinese ADRs failed to ride the market rebound and mostly closed lower; Alibaba dropped 0.08% to 107.45 USD, Pinduoduo fell 1.85% to 76.50 USD, JD.com declined 0.86% to 26.37 USD, Baidu slipped 1.47% to 85.59 USD, Li Auto dropped 2.11% to 11.12 USD, NIO decreased 0.87% to 3.40 USD, XPeng fell 1.46% to 9.42 USD, KE Holdings lost 1.25% to 16.64 USD, and Trip.com declined 0.87% to 38.76 USD.
*Heavy concentration in low-strike bullish warrants may pose risks for HK stocks*
US PCE inflation for August, released Wednesday, rose 3.4% year-on-year, below the expected 3.7%. Core PCE rose 3% year-on-year, also below the expected 3.3%. These favorable data further supported the Fed's dovish stance. Previously, analysts had anticipated that the Fed would typically remain on hold before the US midterm elections, which now aligns with the current situation. The Singapore HS50 index, reflecting expectations for Hong Kong market performance, is currently at 24318, up 7 points, at a discount of 295 points to the current Hang Seng Index spot level. This suggests that the Hong Kong market may initially follow the global market's decline from Wednesday, with the HSI expected to open around 200 points lower.
Regarding the Hong Kong market, the National Day Golden Week has begun. Northbound funds will be suspended from trading today until next Wednesday (7th), resuming flow on next Thursday (8th). Trading volume is expected to remain low during this period, and market consensus expects support to weaken. Referring to the open interest distribution of Hang Seng Index bull and bear warrants, although bullish positions profited from Tuesday's rebound, bullish funds continue to bet on support at the 24000 level. The two 100-point strike zones—24100 to 24199 and 24200 to 24299—have each accumulated over a thousand corresponding futures contracts. With northbound funds suspended in the short term, the heavy concentration in bullish warrants may attract downward pressure. Close attention should be paid to tonight's US September non-farm payroll data to determine whether it could become a pretext for bears to launch an attack. The HSI is expected to find initial support around 24300, just before the heavily concentrated bullish zones. (hc)
However, Chinese ADRs failed to ride the market rebound and mostly closed lower; Alibaba dropped 0.08% to 107.45 USD, Pinduoduo fell 1.85% to 76.50 USD, JD.com declined 0.86% to 26.37 USD, Baidu slipped 1.47% to 85.59 USD, Li Auto dropped 2.11% to 11.12 USD, NIO decreased 0.87% to 3.40 USD, XPeng fell 1.46% to 9.42 USD, KE Holdings lost 1.25% to 16.64 USD, and Trip.com declined 0.87% to 38.76 USD.
*Heavy concentration in low-strike bullish warrants may pose risks for HK stocks*
US PCE inflation for August, released Wednesday, rose 3.4% year-on-year, below the expected 3.7%. Core PCE rose 3% year-on-year, also below the expected 3.3%. These favorable data further supported the Fed's dovish stance. Previously, analysts had anticipated that the Fed would typically remain on hold before the US midterm elections, which now aligns with the current situation. The Singapore HS50 index, reflecting expectations for Hong Kong market performance, is currently at 24318, up 7 points, at a discount of 295 points to the current Hang Seng Index spot level. This suggests that the Hong Kong market may initially follow the global market's decline from Wednesday, with the HSI expected to open around 200 points lower.
Regarding the Hong Kong market, the National Day Golden Week has begun. Northbound funds will be suspended from trading today until next Wednesday (7th), resuming flow on next Thursday (8th). Trading volume is expected to remain low during this period, and market consensus expects support to weaken. Referring to the open interest distribution of Hang Seng Index bull and bear warrants, although bullish positions profited from Tuesday's rebound, bullish funds continue to bet on support at the 24000 level. The two 100-point strike zones—24100 to 24199 and 24200 to 24299—have each accumulated over a thousand corresponding futures contracts. With northbound funds suspended in the short term, the heavy concentration in bullish warrants may attract downward pressure. Close attention should be paid to tonight's US September non-farm payroll data to determine whether it could become a pretext for bears to launch an attack. The HSI is expected to find initial support around 24300, just before the heavily concentrated bullish zones. (hc)
