【HEADLINES】
1. U.S. stocks fluctuated on Thursday (1st), the first trading day of October, as investors digested the impact of the latest U.S. economic data and a sharp bond market selloff. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly rose to 5.34%, the highest level in over 24 years since 2002. U.S. equities turned lower after an initial gain, but recovered late in the session, closing slightly higher. The Dow Jones closed up 20.51 points, or 0.04%, at 50,926.56; the S&P 500 rose 14.91 points, or 0.19%, to 7,666.45; the Nasdaq gained 10.53 points, or 0.04%, to 26,871.6. The China Golden Dragon Index was flat. The Nikkei opened at 68,412.5, down 119.5 points. Northbound trading was closed due to the National Day holiday.
2. U.S. President Trump said he does not rule out resuming or intensifying military strikes on Iran after the November midterm elections. U.S. officials revealed that the Pentagon may soon deploy an additional aircraft carrier and 10,000 troops to the Persian Gulf.
3. The U.S. August PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month, below the expected 0.4%; year-on-year, it rose 3.4%, also below the expected 3.7%. The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% month-on-month in August, below the expected 0.3%; year-on-year, it rose 3%, also below the expected 3.3%.
4. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson stated the Fed may need more time to determine whether further rate hikes are necessary. Vice Chair Bowman also hinted the October meeting might opt to hold rates steady.
5. The U.S. September ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 54.5, slightly down 0.1 point from August's 54.6, remaining in expansion territory above 50 for the ninth consecutive month. The new orders index rose to 55.3.
6. U.S. September ADP private-sector employment added 90,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations of 75,000 and significantly faster than the revised 36,000 in August, indicating a rebound in the U.S. labor market after three consecutive months of slowdown. ADP data showed hiring accelerated in September for the first time since May.
7. The French government plans to sharply reduce its deficit ratio to 5% next year, sparking political struggles that could threaten the prime minister's position. Eurozone government bond risk premiums surged, with the yield spread between 2-year Italian and German bonds widening the most in six years. Hedge funds significantly increased short positions on the euro.
8. Chinese President Xi Jinping said the economy has shown strong resilience and urged efforts to achieve annual targets. Finance Minister Lan Fo'an said targeted incremental policies should be studied and formulated, with greater emphasis on expanding domestic effective demand.
9. China reportedly canceled some refined oil exports originally scheduled for October to prioritize domestic supply.
10. It is reported that Anthropic could launch its formal IPO roadshow as early as mid-November, aiming to list before Thanksgiving in the U.S. Market sources estimate the company's IPO valuation could exceed $2 trillion.
11. Micron Technology (US.MU) provided revenue and profit guidance for the current quarter that exceeded Wall Street expectations. The CEO predicted the company's performance this fiscal year will be stronger than last year. Micron's stock rose about 3% on Thursday.
12. The U.S. dollar remained strong on Thursday, with the DXY index rising above 102, trading around 102.07, up approximately 0.6% on the day. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 5.34%, a new high since 2002, supporting the dollar.
13. During the mainland's National Day Golden Week holiday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are closed from October 1 to October 7, and northbound and southbound trading via the Shanghai-Hong Kong and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect will be suspended simultaneously.
【STOCK HIGHLIGHTS】
New World Development (00017)
- Full-year loss widened to HK$28.1 billion with no dividend, mainly due to losses from the 11 SKIES project; core operating profit recorded for the first time in several years
- Paid HK$2.3 billion to return the 11 SKIES project to the Airport Authority ahead of schedule
Interest-rate sensitive stocks: Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016), Zijin Mining (02899), China Eastern Airlines (00670)
- Current rate markets now price in only a 24% chance of a Fed rate hike this month
- U.S. August PCE price index shows inflation below market expectations
- U.S. 'ADP' September private-sector jobs rose by 90,000, beating expectations
- Fed Vice Chair says central bank may need more time to assess whether further rate hikes are needed
AI large model stocks: MiniMax (00100), Zhipu (02513), Alibaba (09988)
- Anthropic plans IPO in mid-November, reportedly with valuation potentially reaching $2 trillion
BYD (01211)
- September sales exceeded 460,000 units, up 17% year-on-year; first nine months sales down nearly 4%
Geely Automobile (00175)
- September sales exceeded 290,000 units, up 7%; exports surged 1.6-fold
Li Auto (02015)
- Delivered over 30,000 new vehicles in September, down 6% year-on-year; Li Auto L6 delivered over 10,000 units
Great Wall Motor (02333)
- September sales nearly 120,000 units, down 14%; overseas sales up 20%; first nine months sales slightly declined
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093)
- TG103 injection in combination therapy for diabetes clinical study shows good efficacy and safety
FORTIOR (01304)
- To acquire equity and debt of a semiconductor sensor company for up to $120 million
KFM Goldmax (03816)
- 57% equity transferred to Luxshare Precision (02475), which offered a 56% discount for full acquisition; shares resume trading this morning
【OIL & GOLD PRICES】
NYMEX crude oil up 0.06%, at $92.93/barrel
Brent crude oil up 0.19%, at $102.50/barrel
Spot gold down 0.03%, at $4,175.98/ounce
Gold futures up 0.13%, at $4,207.84/ounce
1. U.S. stocks fluctuated on Thursday (1st), the first trading day of October, as investors digested the impact of the latest U.S. economic data and a sharp bond market selloff. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly rose to 5.34%, the highest level in over 24 years since 2002. U.S. equities turned lower after an initial gain, but recovered late in the session, closing slightly higher. The Dow Jones closed up 20.51 points, or 0.04%, at 50,926.56; the S&P 500 rose 14.91 points, or 0.19%, to 7,666.45; the Nasdaq gained 10.53 points, or 0.04%, to 26,871.6. The China Golden Dragon Index was flat. The Nikkei opened at 68,412.5, down 119.5 points. Northbound trading was closed due to the National Day holiday.
2. U.S. President Trump said he does not rule out resuming or intensifying military strikes on Iran after the November midterm elections. U.S. officials revealed that the Pentagon may soon deploy an additional aircraft carrier and 10,000 troops to the Persian Gulf.
3. The U.S. August PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month, below the expected 0.4%; year-on-year, it rose 3.4%, also below the expected 3.7%. The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% month-on-month in August, below the expected 0.3%; year-on-year, it rose 3%, also below the expected 3.3%.
4. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson stated the Fed may need more time to determine whether further rate hikes are necessary. Vice Chair Bowman also hinted the October meeting might opt to hold rates steady.
5. The U.S. September ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 54.5, slightly down 0.1 point from August's 54.6, remaining in expansion territory above 50 for the ninth consecutive month. The new orders index rose to 55.3.
6. U.S. September ADP private-sector employment added 90,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations of 75,000 and significantly faster than the revised 36,000 in August, indicating a rebound in the U.S. labor market after three consecutive months of slowdown. ADP data showed hiring accelerated in September for the first time since May.
7. The French government plans to sharply reduce its deficit ratio to 5% next year, sparking political struggles that could threaten the prime minister's position. Eurozone government bond risk premiums surged, with the yield spread between 2-year Italian and German bonds widening the most in six years. Hedge funds significantly increased short positions on the euro.
8. Chinese President Xi Jinping said the economy has shown strong resilience and urged efforts to achieve annual targets. Finance Minister Lan Fo'an said targeted incremental policies should be studied and formulated, with greater emphasis on expanding domestic effective demand.
9. China reportedly canceled some refined oil exports originally scheduled for October to prioritize domestic supply.
10. It is reported that Anthropic could launch its formal IPO roadshow as early as mid-November, aiming to list before Thanksgiving in the U.S. Market sources estimate the company's IPO valuation could exceed $2 trillion.
11. Micron Technology (US.MU) provided revenue and profit guidance for the current quarter that exceeded Wall Street expectations. The CEO predicted the company's performance this fiscal year will be stronger than last year. Micron's stock rose about 3% on Thursday.
12. The U.S. dollar remained strong on Thursday, with the DXY index rising above 102, trading around 102.07, up approximately 0.6% on the day. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 5.34%, a new high since 2002, supporting the dollar.
13. During the mainland's National Day Golden Week holiday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are closed from October 1 to October 7, and northbound and southbound trading via the Shanghai-Hong Kong and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect will be suspended simultaneously.
【STOCK HIGHLIGHTS】
New World Development (00017)
- Full-year loss widened to HK$28.1 billion with no dividend, mainly due to losses from the 11 SKIES project; core operating profit recorded for the first time in several years
- Paid HK$2.3 billion to return the 11 SKIES project to the Airport Authority ahead of schedule
Interest-rate sensitive stocks: Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016), Zijin Mining (02899), China Eastern Airlines (00670)
- Current rate markets now price in only a 24% chance of a Fed rate hike this month
- U.S. August PCE price index shows inflation below market expectations
- U.S. 'ADP' September private-sector jobs rose by 90,000, beating expectations
- Fed Vice Chair says central bank may need more time to assess whether further rate hikes are needed
AI large model stocks: MiniMax (00100), Zhipu (02513), Alibaba (09988)
- Anthropic plans IPO in mid-November, reportedly with valuation potentially reaching $2 trillion
BYD (01211)
- September sales exceeded 460,000 units, up 17% year-on-year; first nine months sales down nearly 4%
Geely Automobile (00175)
- September sales exceeded 290,000 units, up 7%; exports surged 1.6-fold
Li Auto (02015)
- Delivered over 30,000 new vehicles in September, down 6% year-on-year; Li Auto L6 delivered over 10,000 units
Great Wall Motor (02333)
- September sales nearly 120,000 units, down 14%; overseas sales up 20%; first nine months sales slightly declined
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093)
- TG103 injection in combination therapy for diabetes clinical study shows good efficacy and safety
FORTIOR (01304)
- To acquire equity and debt of a semiconductor sensor company for up to $120 million
KFM Goldmax (03816)
- 57% equity transferred to Luxshare Precision (02475), which offered a 56% discount for full acquisition; shares resume trading this morning
【OIL & GOLD PRICES】
NYMEX crude oil up 0.06%, at $92.93/barrel
Brent crude oil up 0.19%, at $102.50/barrel
Spot gold down 0.03%, at $4,175.98/ounce
Gold futures up 0.13%, at $4,207.84/ounce
