JPMorgan research report indicates industry data shows sales of the top 100 mainland property developers declined year-on-year by 17% in August, narrowing to 11% in September. However, compared with the four-year average level before the liquidity crisis (2018 to 2021), the 80% decline in August still marked the largest drop since 2021.
The bank believes that the recently introduced mortgage interest subsidy policy is expected to provide a slight short-term boost to property sales, especially in lower-tier cities; thus, it expects the sales decline in October to narrow to single digits. However, it does not currently anticipate a strong year-on-year rebound, as the RMB 50,000 mortgage subsidy cap may not fundamentally reverse the situation.
Cumulative sales of the top 100 property developers in the first nine months of this year fell 13% year-on-year; the bank forecasts a full-year decline of 12% year-on-year, implying a 9% year-on-year decline in the fourth quarter. Although the primary market remains weak, the bank expects secondary market sales to remain robust, growing over 10% year-on-year.
| Stock (Code) | Current Price (HK$) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| China Overseas (00688) | 12.77 | Down 2.96% |
| China Resources Land (01109) | 29.42 | Down 3.73% |
| Shimao Group (00813) | 0.04 | Down 4.76% |
| Longfor (00960) | 5.405 | Down 5.09% |
| Sunac China (01918) | 0.615 | Down 6.11% |
| Country Garden (02007) | 0.18 | Down 8.63% |
| Vanke Enterprise (02202) | 2.65 | Down 5.02% |
| Greentown (03900) | 6.195 | Down 4.69% |
