《One Week Ahead》Key financial and economic events to watch in the coming week:

*Fed to release meeting minutes*

　　US Treasury yields remain persistently high, raising the risk of serious financial instability and fiscal crisis, which objectively leaves little room for the Federal Reserve to continue raising rates. At this critical juncture, newly released employment data and oil supply policies have conveniently provided the Fed with a rationale to pause rate hikes. On one hand, US non-farm payrolls in September increased by only 29,000, far below the market expectation of 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, signaling a cooling in economic momentum. On the other hand, the G7 agreed to jointly release 100 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, temporarily suppressing energy prices and inflation expectations. Currently, the market assigns only about a 22% probability to a Fed rate hike this month. Additionally, the Fed will release the minutes of its September meeting, offering investors crucial insights into policymakers’ assessment of the current rate-hiking cycle.

*Lack of Northbound flows amplifies downward trend in HK market*

　　The Hong Kong market came under significant pressure last Friday (2nd), plunging 640 points and breaking below the 24,000 level, with turnover falling short of HK$200 billion. With the National Day holiday beginning, mainland markets will be closed for nearly a week, depriving the Hong Kong market of Northbound capital inflows. This has tightened market liquidity further, suppressing trading volume and exacerbating downward volatility. Technically, with the Hang Seng Index breaking below the key support level of 24,352 points, the Fibonacci retracement level—calculated from the rally between the June low of 22,518 and the early August high of 26,187—points to 23,919 as the core defense line.

*Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba continues to push tax reduction plan*

　　Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will deliver his policy speech on October 5. According to media leaks, domestically he will treat population decline as a national crisis and plan to formulate a comprehensive strategy by year-end. Economically, he will push forward with a controversial consumption tax reduction bill to ease household burdens, pledging not to rely on government bonds for funding to maintain market confidence. In foreign policy, he will designate China as an important neighbor and promote strategic mutual benefits, while maintaining a firm stance on its military activities and advancing the Indo-Pacific concept and intelligence capabilities. Additionally, the Japanese government plans to increase investment in energy and cybersecurity, finalize a five-year investment roadmap within the year, and continue the relocation of the Futenma base to boost Okinawa’s economy.

*Brazil election reignites left-right battle*

　　Following Argentina’s right-wing resurgence under President Milei, Brazil’s 2026 presidential election continues the left-right divide, now entering the first-round voting stage. Former far-right candidate Bolsonaro, who nearly won last time, has been barred from running, and his eldest son, current Senator Flávio, has taken over, turning the election into a cross-generational "political revenge sequel." Brazil is currently grappling with high inflation in food and daily necessities, worsening public security, and rampant gang violence, fueling widespread discontent among lower-income voters. Riding on public frustration and with external support from former US President Trump, Flávio of the Liberal Party may lead Brazil—the traditional leftist stronghold—to fall once again, following its 2016 shift.
 　　*The above table compiles dates of board meetings announced by listed issuers. This list may not be exhaustive and is for reference only. Please monitor official announcements from listed issuers.