{Economic Information Daily, 5th exclusive} The U.S. added 29,000 non-farm jobs in September, far below the market expectation of 84,000, significantly weakening expectations for a rate hike at the end of the month. Interest rate futures indicate the probability of a rate hike by month-end has dropped to about 22%. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond briefly fell to 5.15% but then rebounded, causing the gains in U.S. stocks on last Friday (2nd) to narrow at closing. The three major indices remained higher, with the Dow rising 250 points to 51176, the Nasdaq up 319 points to 27190, and the S&P up 56 points to 7722.
*Chinese ADRs and listed stocks weakened due to Hong Kong market performance*
The sharp decline in Hong Kong stocks last Friday dragged down expectations for Chinese concept stocks, with most moving against the market trend and weakening. Alibaba fell 1.49% to close at $105.85, Pinduoduo dropped 1.46% to $75.38, JD.com declined 2.24% to $25.78, Baidu fell 1.48% to $84.32, Li Auto dropped 3.87% to $10.69, NIO fell 0.88% to $3.37, XPeng decreased 1.80% to $9.25, Beike fell 1.26% to $16.43, and Trip.com dropped 1.73% to $38.09.
ADRs showed mixed performance compared to their Hong Kong counterparts, with tech and internet stock ADRs generally underperforming Hong Kong shares; Tencent (00700) ADR was 1.07% lower than its Hong Kong share, equivalent to HK$416.7; Xiaomi (01810) ADR was 0.63% lower, equivalent to HK$24.1; Meituan (03690) ADR was 1.03% lower, equivalent to HK$69.5; AIA (01299) ADR was 0.43% higher, equivalent to HK$69.5; HSBC (00005) ADR was 0.91% higher, equivalent to HK$150.9; HKEX (00388) ADR was 0.04% lower, equivalent to HK$375.7.
*Northbound funds still halted, limiting Hong Kong's rebound potential; bulls expected to gain strength on non-farm data*
Last Friday, international financial stocks such as HSBC were hit by news of the UK government's proposed windfall tax, dragging down the Hong Kong market by over 600 points and breaking below 24,000. Although the sharp drop in U.S. rate hike probability is generally positive and Japanese stocks rose over 2% this morning, the Hong Kong market has broken key technical levels and lacks northbound flow support, so its ability to rebound remains uncertain. Currently, the Singapore HS50 index, reflecting expectations for Hong Kong stocks, stands at 23864, down 15 points, 108 points below the spot Hang Seng Index. The Hang Seng Index is expected to open lower by about 100 points.
Last Friday's negative shock caused massive losses in bullish positions on the Hang Seng Index, but the sharp decline also sparked a counterattack by bulls. According to the distribution of Hang Seng Index bull and bear warrants, the open interest in bull warrants actually increased instead of decreasing on Friday, with a net increase of 1,565 index futures equivalent contracts across all bull positions. The 23700-23799 zone saw a sharp increase of 1,019 contracts to 1,243, becoming the area with the largest new additions, while the 23600-23699 zone had a net increase of 983 contracts to 1,585, becoming the heaviest position zone. This reflects short-term market bets on a technical rebound, with investors watching whether the surprise U.S. employment data can help bulls regain lost ground, with initial resistance at 24300. (hc)
*Chinese ADRs and listed stocks weakened due to Hong Kong market performance*
The sharp decline in Hong Kong stocks last Friday dragged down expectations for Chinese concept stocks, with most moving against the market trend and weakening. Alibaba fell 1.49% to close at $105.85, Pinduoduo dropped 1.46% to $75.38, JD.com declined 2.24% to $25.78, Baidu fell 1.48% to $84.32, Li Auto dropped 3.87% to $10.69, NIO fell 0.88% to $3.37, XPeng decreased 1.80% to $9.25, Beike fell 1.26% to $16.43, and Trip.com dropped 1.73% to $38.09.
ADRs showed mixed performance compared to their Hong Kong counterparts, with tech and internet stock ADRs generally underperforming Hong Kong shares; Tencent (00700) ADR was 1.07% lower than its Hong Kong share, equivalent to HK$416.7; Xiaomi (01810) ADR was 0.63% lower, equivalent to HK$24.1; Meituan (03690) ADR was 1.03% lower, equivalent to HK$69.5; AIA (01299) ADR was 0.43% higher, equivalent to HK$69.5; HSBC (00005) ADR was 0.91% higher, equivalent to HK$150.9; HKEX (00388) ADR was 0.04% lower, equivalent to HK$375.7.
*Northbound funds still halted, limiting Hong Kong's rebound potential; bulls expected to gain strength on non-farm data*
Last Friday, international financial stocks such as HSBC were hit by news of the UK government's proposed windfall tax, dragging down the Hong Kong market by over 600 points and breaking below 24,000. Although the sharp drop in U.S. rate hike probability is generally positive and Japanese stocks rose over 2% this morning, the Hong Kong market has broken key technical levels and lacks northbound flow support, so its ability to rebound remains uncertain. Currently, the Singapore HS50 index, reflecting expectations for Hong Kong stocks, stands at 23864, down 15 points, 108 points below the spot Hang Seng Index. The Hang Seng Index is expected to open lower by about 100 points.
Last Friday's negative shock caused massive losses in bullish positions on the Hang Seng Index, but the sharp decline also sparked a counterattack by bulls. According to the distribution of Hang Seng Index bull and bear warrants, the open interest in bull warrants actually increased instead of decreasing on Friday, with a net increase of 1,565 index futures equivalent contracts across all bull positions. The 23700-23799 zone saw a sharp increase of 1,019 contracts to 1,243, becoming the area with the largest new additions, while the 23600-23699 zone had a net increase of 983 contracts to 1,585, becoming the heaviest position zone. This reflects short-term market bets on a technical rebound, with investors watching whether the surprise U.S. employment data can help bulls regain lost ground, with initial resistance at 24300. (hc)
