Economic Information Daily (5th) reported that the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday (7th), expected to show that many policymakers were very concerned about core price trends at the time. Earlier, markets had heavily bet on a rate hike in October, but this expectation has now clearly reversed. Bloomberg Economics said the bar for a rate hike in October has become very high.
U.S. September non-farm payroll data significantly missed expectations, causing market bets on a Fed rate hike this month to cool down. According to the latest data from CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4% at its October 28 meeting has risen to 75.1%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike stands at 24.9%.
Looking ahead to December, markets currently estimate the probability of holding rates steady at 20.6%, while probabilities for a 25-basis-point and 50-basis-point hike are 61.3% and 18.1% respectively. These figures reflect significant uncertainty in the market regarding the monetary policy path for the remainder of the year, with future focus continuing on inflation and labor market developments. (yc)
U.S. September non-farm payroll data significantly missed expectations, causing market bets on a Fed rate hike this month to cool down. According to the latest data from CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4% at its October 28 meeting has risen to 75.1%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike stands at 24.9%.
Looking ahead to December, markets currently estimate the probability of holding rates steady at 20.6%, while probabilities for a 25-basis-point and 50-basis-point hike are 61.3% and 18.1% respectively. These figures reflect significant uncertainty in the market regarding the monetary policy path for the remainder of the year, with future focus continuing on inflation and labor market developments. (yc)
