The "Zheng Zheng Jing Jing" on last Friday (2nd) saw a sharp drop in Hong Kong stocks, which I analyzed yesterday (5th) as: US data conflicting, innocent victims. Yesterday, Hong Kong stocks rose slightly; what's the outlook for the market? Huatai Ruishi has analysis.
Last week, the trend of Hong Kong stocks was still dominated by overseas interest rate expectations. After an extreme one-sided pessimistic interpretation, the US non-farm payroll on Friday was far below market expectations, coupled with rising unemployment rate, leading to a significant decline in market expectations for rate hikes in October. Subsequently, the market may see a short-term recovery amid the resumption of northbound flows through the southbound channel on October 8 and high-frequency data from National Day travel filling the fundamental vacuum.
However, it should be noted that the interest rate center of "higher for longer" has not been shaken, and the turning points in macro policies and corporate earnings trends have not yet been confirmed. Therefore, a medium-term turnaround may not have appeared yet. It is recommended to respond with structural strategies, balancing offense and defense.
In terms of allocation, oil prices and US Treasury yields remain the main constraints on the valuation recovery space of Hong Kong stocks. Continue holding dividend stocks as base positions, primarily allocating to operational assets such as railways, highways, and ports.
Innovative pharmaceuticals and CXO leaders remain in a favorable industry climate with Sino-US resonance, and can continue to be held, with emphasis on stock selection and timing of profit-taking; overseas technology hardware sentiment has warmed up but is concentrated in a few giants with strong catalysts. Hong Kong stocks are mainly domestic supply chains, and the window for a trend-based long position still requires waiting.
People won't get rich without windfalls, horses won't get fat without wild grass, and stocks won't rise without inflows of capital from north, south, east, or west. Nowadays, when buying stocks, follow the big money flows; don't believe blindly that 'if you have musk, it will naturally be fragrant.' As long as a pig stands at the风口, even a pig can fly and be worth buying, but remember, pigs cannot fly indefinitely. So pay attention to the wind direction, i.e., the direction of capital flows, which can change—and once it does, you must exit quickly. Wishing everyone swift hands and swift feet, quick in and quicker out.
(Investing involves risks, and every investor's risk tolerance varies; independent thinking is essential. The author may trade based on market conditions.)
*Articles published in "Economic Times," signed and/or unsigned, represent the authors' personal opinions and do not necessarily reflect the stance of "Economic Times." The role of "Economic Times" is to provide a free platform for expression.
Last week, the trend of Hong Kong stocks was still dominated by overseas interest rate expectations. After an extreme one-sided pessimistic interpretation, the US non-farm payroll on Friday was far below market expectations, coupled with rising unemployment rate, leading to a significant decline in market expectations for rate hikes in October. Subsequently, the market may see a short-term recovery amid the resumption of northbound flows through the southbound channel on October 8 and high-frequency data from National Day travel filling the fundamental vacuum.
However, it should be noted that the interest rate center of "higher for longer" has not been shaken, and the turning points in macro policies and corporate earnings trends have not yet been confirmed. Therefore, a medium-term turnaround may not have appeared yet. It is recommended to respond with structural strategies, balancing offense and defense.
In terms of allocation, oil prices and US Treasury yields remain the main constraints on the valuation recovery space of Hong Kong stocks. Continue holding dividend stocks as base positions, primarily allocating to operational assets such as railways, highways, and ports.
Innovative pharmaceuticals and CXO leaders remain in a favorable industry climate with Sino-US resonance, and can continue to be held, with emphasis on stock selection and timing of profit-taking; overseas technology hardware sentiment has warmed up but is concentrated in a few giants with strong catalysts. Hong Kong stocks are mainly domestic supply chains, and the window for a trend-based long position still requires waiting.
People won't get rich without windfalls, horses won't get fat without wild grass, and stocks won't rise without inflows of capital from north, south, east, or west. Nowadays, when buying stocks, follow the big money flows; don't believe blindly that 'if you have musk, it will naturally be fragrant.' As long as a pig stands at the风口, even a pig can fly and be worth buying, but remember, pigs cannot fly indefinitely. So pay attention to the wind direction, i.e., the direction of capital flows, which can change—and once it does, you must exit quickly. Wishing everyone swift hands and swift feet, quick in and quicker out.
(Investing involves risks, and every investor's risk tolerance varies; independent thinking is essential. The author may trade based on market conditions.)
*Articles published in "Economic Times," signed and/or unsigned, represent the authors' personal opinions and do not necessarily reflect the stance of "Economic Times." The role of "Economic Times" is to provide a free platform for expression.
