The Strategic Planning column's actual holding ratios for short-term, medium-term and long-term securities investment portfolios are currently 37.5%, 31.25% and 27.5% respectively, with market outlooks categorized as bearish, clearly bearish and significantly bearish respectively. Under an environment where large bearish players still control the overall situation, yesterday's (6th) performance of Hong Kong stocks was not bad, except that overall market turnover remained sluggish, failing to prove that large bullish players are determined to launch a full counterattack. From the beginning of this month until now, the tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the index futures market suggests that the main trend of Hong Kong stocks before market close on the 15th of this month will mostly be downward. In other words, before there are clear signs that the short-term situation has formally improved, any rise should only be regarded as an ultra-short-term rebound wave. The Hang Seng Index only reached a high of 24,354, not yet reaching the first measured upside target of 24,378, which is 0.382 times the decline from last month's high of 25,254 on the 22nd, proving that selling pressure at higher levels remains heavy. Market participants are mostly waiting for clues from market conditions after the return of northbound funds tomorrow (8th).

On the other hand, HSI futures rose above the low of 24,265 on the 25th of last month, reaching as high as 24,346, and have reached the first measured upside target of 24,326, calculated in the same manner mentioned above. If the short-term situation further strengthens, the next upside target should be 24,504/24,681. Index futures have always been more indicative of future market trends than their corresponding indices, and we should not rule out the possibility of the current ultra-short-term rebound wave evolving into a short-term corrective wave. Of course, if the investment climate does not improve, it would be difficult to see such a scenario occur. According to experience, if prices really need to test support at the June 26 low of 22,521, the current ultra-short-term rebound wave should end quickly. Therefore, Hong Kong stocks should accelerate their rebound before this weekend, causing more bears to back off; otherwise, we should seize opportunities to reduce holdings, take shelter first, and then wait for lower levels to buy back after the short-term situation improves. Chief Consultant of Economic Intelligence and Trading Intelligence, Leo Leung (website: www.BennyLeung.com)

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