{Expert's View} With mainland China on a long holiday and A-shares continuing their suspension, yesterday (6th) the Hang Seng Index opened 239 points higher, with gains expanding to over 300 points in early trading, showing positive momentum. However, trading volume failed to support the rally. The market closed at 24,280 points, up 240 points or 1%, with total turnover reaching HK$98.265 billion; the Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 4,223 points, up 39 points or 0.94%; the H-share Index closed at 8,128 points, up 77 points or 0.96%. As major global economies re-enter a rate hike cycle, yields on various bonds have risen. On last Thursday (1st), the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury briefly touched 5.347%, the highest since 2002; the 30-year bond yield rose to 5.693%, also the highest since 2002.
*High oil prices intensify inflation concerns; mainland economic and consumer recovery progressing slowly*
On the data front, last Friday's U.S. September non-farm payroll report fell far short of expectations, with only 29,000 new jobs added, well below the market expectation of over 80,000. This caused the 10-year bond yield to retreat to around 5.175%, the 30-year yield to fall to 5.59%, and the 2-year yield to drop to 4.766%, reflecting cooling market expectations for short-term interest rates. Given that U.S. President Trump has rejected Iran's ceasefire conditions and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, high oil prices continue to exacerbate inflation concerns. Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Barr stated that the September rate hike was merely a "recalibration," implying further tightening may still be needed in the future.
Regarding the Hong Kong stock market, although the Hang Seng Index may have a short-term rebound opportunity, hidden macro risks are emerging. It must be reiterated that mainland China's economic and consumer recovery is progressing slowly, the property sector adjustment is not yet complete, and it will take time for various support measures to translate into real economic impact. Investors should proceed with caution. This is certainly not the time for blind buying. Investors should prioritize defense, strictly control leverage, and retain cash. {Senior Independent Stock Analyst, PhD Candidate, Ho Chi Ming}
*Articles published in {Economic Times} under named or anonymous authorship reflect the personal opinions of the authors and do not represent the stance of {Economic Times}. {Economic Times} serves as a platform providing free expression of views.
*High oil prices intensify inflation concerns; mainland economic and consumer recovery progressing slowly*
On the data front, last Friday's U.S. September non-farm payroll report fell far short of expectations, with only 29,000 new jobs added, well below the market expectation of over 80,000. This caused the 10-year bond yield to retreat to around 5.175%, the 30-year yield to fall to 5.59%, and the 2-year yield to drop to 4.766%, reflecting cooling market expectations for short-term interest rates. Given that U.S. President Trump has rejected Iran's ceasefire conditions and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, high oil prices continue to exacerbate inflation concerns. Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Barr stated that the September rate hike was merely a "recalibration," implying further tightening may still be needed in the future.
Regarding the Hong Kong stock market, although the Hang Seng Index may have a short-term rebound opportunity, hidden macro risks are emerging. It must be reiterated that mainland China's economic and consumer recovery is progressing slowly, the property sector adjustment is not yet complete, and it will take time for various support measures to translate into real economic impact. Investors should proceed with caution. This is certainly not the time for blind buying. Investors should prioritize defense, strictly control leverage, and retain cash. {Senior Independent Stock Analyst, PhD Candidate, Ho Chi Ming}
*Articles published in {Economic Times} under named or anonymous authorship reflect the personal opinions of the authors and do not represent the stance of {Economic Times}. {Economic Times} serves as a platform providing free expression of views.
