The Investment Strategist' Currently, the actual holding levels of this column's short-term, medium-term, and long-term securities investment portfolios are 25%, 25%, and 27.5% respectively, with market conditions categorized as bearish, significantly bearish, and significantly bearish. Today (8th), the Shanghai-Hong Kong and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Connect services have resumed trading, and the Hong Kong market has a higher chance of continuing its recent rebound momentum, gradually strengthening the short-term outlook; however, the buying pressure is expected to come mostly from speculators entering the market to cover previous short positions for profit, rather than from investors turning optimistic about the market outlook. Among various business sectors, healthcare, biotechnology, semiconductor, and software services have shown relatively stronger performance recently, while the property and financial sectors continue to face pressure. Preliminary estimates suggest that the market will exhibit a fluctuating but relatively stable trend within the current trading range before the weekend; if trading volume rises back to pre-mainland holiday levels, the rebound could expand. However, if U.S. bond yields or oil prices continue to rise, the Hong Kong market's rebound may be hindered, and there remains a possibility of reversing and falling again.
Among healthcare stocks, GenScript Biotech (01548), which has seen very active trading recently, plunged yesterday (7th) from Tuesday's (6th) high of HK$49.46 to HK$40.48, indicating that its short-term upward trend has likely ended and that it is now highly probable to be in a correction phase. The high of HK$37.36 on March 3rd can now be considered a key short-term support level, which should not be breached. On the candlestick daily chart, among the five major technical indicators, only the Bollinger Bands and MACD remain positive after the SAR formed an extreme low at HK$40.48. Given that the short-term outlook has shifted from significantly positive to bearish, speculators should first sell into the next rebound to lock in profits, then wait to see how the market evolves before deciding whether to buy back at lower levels. Additionally, the previously supportive rising channel on the chart has now been broken; if the stock price fails to recover and stabilize above this channel before the weekend, caution is warranted as the correction range could expand, although the likelihood of the medium-term outlook turning bearish remains low. Chief Investment Advisor of Economic Intelligence and Trading Express, Leung Yip-ho (Website: www.BennyLeung.com)
*Articles published in 'Economic Intelligence', whether signed or unsigned, represent the personal opinions of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the stance of 'Economic Intelligence'. 'Economic Intelligence' serves as a platform for free expression of views.
Among healthcare stocks, GenScript Biotech (01548), which has seen very active trading recently, plunged yesterday (7th) from Tuesday's (6th) high of HK$49.46 to HK$40.48, indicating that its short-term upward trend has likely ended and that it is now highly probable to be in a correction phase. The high of HK$37.36 on March 3rd can now be considered a key short-term support level, which should not be breached. On the candlestick daily chart, among the five major technical indicators, only the Bollinger Bands and MACD remain positive after the SAR formed an extreme low at HK$40.48. Given that the short-term outlook has shifted from significantly positive to bearish, speculators should first sell into the next rebound to lock in profits, then wait to see how the market evolves before deciding whether to buy back at lower levels. Additionally, the previously supportive rising channel on the chart has now been broken; if the stock price fails to recover and stabilize above this channel before the weekend, caution is warranted as the correction range could expand, although the likelihood of the medium-term outlook turning bearish remains low. Chief Investment Advisor of Economic Intelligence and Trading Express, Leung Yip-ho (Website: www.BennyLeung.com)
*Articles published in 'Economic Intelligence', whether signed or unsigned, represent the personal opinions of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the stance of 'Economic Intelligence'. 'Economic Intelligence' serves as a platform for free expression of views.
