《Thoughts and Considerations》The market has just entered the first ten days of October and also stepped into the fourth quarter of this year. In terms of trend, although only three trading days have passed, the market has initially shown a pattern of moving from low to high. The Hang Seng Index has risen temporarily from its intramonth low of 23,835 points on the 5th to its high of 24,354 points on the 6th, resulting in a current monthly range of 519 points. First, a range of 519 points cannot satisfy the month's typical requirement. Moreover, the monthly high and low are unlikely to occur within just two trading days, so larger price swings must emerge in the remaining trading days of the month, thereby widening the monthly range to meet normal needs and also expanding the distance between the monthly high and low to fulfill habitual patterns. Judging from the current market performance, since the Hang Seng Index has already broken below all moving averages and recent trading volume has remained thin, technically speaking, the market trend remains weak, meaning the overall volatile, bottom-testing weakness remains unchanged. Strictly speaking, for the market to break free from this persistent bottom-testing weakness, the Hang Seng Index must first successfully reclaim and sustain above the 10-day moving average (around 24,431).
*Any slight rebound may only be a technical pull-back*
The downtrend of the market, which started from the peak of 26,187 points on August 4, has now lasted for eight weeks. As the market has remained in a volatile downtrend, the Hang Seng Index has long broken below all moving averages, and the arrangement of these moving averages has already formed a reverse order. Currently, from top to bottom, they are the 250-day moving average (around 25,646 points), the 50-day moving average (around 25,219 points), the 100-day moving average (around 24,904 points), the 20-day moving average (around 24,656 points), and the 10-day moving average (around 24,431 points). Judging solely from the arrangement of these five moving averages, it is evident that the overall market remains in a volatile, bottom-testing weak phase. Even if the market manages a slight rebound during this period, it may only be a technical pull-back characterized by volatility without significant gains, featuring rebounds without substantial upward moves.
*Year-to-date range remains narrow, so the possibility of further testing lows should not be ruled out*
Looking at a broader picture, the market pattern this year remains one of starting high and then moving lower. The Hang Seng Index has temporarily declined from its high of 28,056 points on January 29 to its low of 22,518 points on June 26, resulting in a year-to-date range of only 5,538 points, which is relatively narrow. For comparison, consider the market ranges of the past two years. In 2024, the Hang Seng Index rose from its low of 14,794 points on January 22 to its high of 23,241 points on October 7, resulting in a year-to-date range of 8,447 points. In 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose from its low of 18,671 points on January 13 to its high of 27,381 points on October 2, resulting in a year-to-date range of 8,710 points. From the above data, it is clear that the current year-to-date range of 5,538 points for the Hang Seng Index is relatively narrow. This suggests that there remains a chance for the market to widen its year-to-date range in the fourth quarter of this year. Given the current market situation, the possibility of further testing of lower levels should not be dismissed. Samuel Kwok, Vice Chairman, The Hong Kong Association of Stock Analysts (This column appears every Thursday)
*Articles published in ETNet, whether signed or unsigned, represent the authors' personal opinions only and do not reflect the position of ETNet. ETNet serves merely as a platform for free expression.
*Any slight rebound may only be a technical pull-back*
The downtrend of the market, which started from the peak of 26,187 points on August 4, has now lasted for eight weeks. As the market has remained in a volatile downtrend, the Hang Seng Index has long broken below all moving averages, and the arrangement of these moving averages has already formed a reverse order. Currently, from top to bottom, they are the 250-day moving average (around 25,646 points), the 50-day moving average (around 25,219 points), the 100-day moving average (around 24,904 points), the 20-day moving average (around 24,656 points), and the 10-day moving average (around 24,431 points). Judging solely from the arrangement of these five moving averages, it is evident that the overall market remains in a volatile, bottom-testing weak phase. Even if the market manages a slight rebound during this period, it may only be a technical pull-back characterized by volatility without significant gains, featuring rebounds without substantial upward moves.
*Year-to-date range remains narrow, so the possibility of further testing lows should not be ruled out*
Looking at a broader picture, the market pattern this year remains one of starting high and then moving lower. The Hang Seng Index has temporarily declined from its high of 28,056 points on January 29 to its low of 22,518 points on June 26, resulting in a year-to-date range of only 5,538 points, which is relatively narrow. For comparison, consider the market ranges of the past two years. In 2024, the Hang Seng Index rose from its low of 14,794 points on January 22 to its high of 23,241 points on October 7, resulting in a year-to-date range of 8,447 points. In 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose from its low of 18,671 points on January 13 to its high of 27,381 points on October 2, resulting in a year-to-date range of 8,710 points. From the above data, it is clear that the current year-to-date range of 5,538 points for the Hang Seng Index is relatively narrow. This suggests that there remains a chance for the market to widen its year-to-date range in the fourth quarter of this year. Given the current market situation, the possibility of further testing of lower levels should not be dismissed. Samuel Kwok, Vice Chairman, The Hong Kong Association of Stock Analysts (This column appears every Thursday)
*Articles published in ETNet, whether signed or unsigned, represent the authors' personal opinions only and do not reflect the position of ETNet. ETNet serves merely as a platform for free expression.
