《匯海威言》Trump suddenly announced, about an hour before the market closed last Friday (9th), that the U.S. and Russia had reached a diesel agreement, under which the U.S. would temporarily lift sanctions on Russian diesel trade until April 7, 2027. Russia would immediately supply over 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by 500,000 tons in November, another 1 million tons thereafter, and up to 3 million tons in the short term depending on refinery conditions; the supply would be directed to the U.S. and global markets.
After the announcement, U.S. diesel futures dropped nearly 5%, falling from $4.89 per gallon to around $4.64, before closing at $4.68. However, crude oil futures reacted indifferently, with New York crude (WTI) closing up slightly by 0.39% at $91.85 per barrel.
In terms of volume, Russia's diesel supply is merely "negligible." Trump's move appears heavily politically motivated, primarily aimed at salvaging the November midterm election by appeasing public discontent over high energy prices; it is expected to only cause a temporary dip in diesel prices and will be virtually ineffective in lowering energy prices and inflation.
First, the initial 300,000 tons of diesel equates to only half a day's consumption in the U.S. (according to IEA data, daily U.S. diesel consumption ranges between 500,000 and 600,000 tons); even the cumulative total of 800,000 tons by the end of November falls short of two days' usage. Second, the root cause driving up oil prices and inflation lies in the Strait of Hormuz crisis and Middle East geopolitical conflicts. Therefore, this diesel agreement fails to address the core issue of crude oil supply disruptions.
Although the market expects an 80% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates on October 28, the probability of a rate hike in December remains the highest among all options (71%), a sentiment that continues to support the dollar. Currently, high U.S. interest rates and Treasury yields remain the primary factor suppressing gold prices.
This Wednesday (14th), the U.S. will release the year-on-year change in September's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to provide important guidance on whether the Fed will raise rates again this year; the outcome warrants close attention. On Friday (16th), Federal Reserve Chair Walsh will deliver a speech.
*Important News*
Wednesday (14th)
20:30: U.S. September year-on-year CPI change, forecast at 3.6%, previous at 3.4%.
Thursday (15th)
20:30: U.S. September month-on-month retail sales change, forecast at 0.3%, previous at 1.2%.
Friday (16th)
11:30: Federal Reserve Chair Walsh speech
*Written at 12:50 PM, October 12, 2026
《Koco Futures Business and Market Analysis Department Head, Moses Mao》
*The signed and/or unsigned articles published in ETNet are the authors' personal opinions and do not represent ETNet's position. ETNet's role is to provide a free speech platform.
After the announcement, U.S. diesel futures dropped nearly 5%, falling from $4.89 per gallon to around $4.64, before closing at $4.68. However, crude oil futures reacted indifferently, with New York crude (WTI) closing up slightly by 0.39% at $91.85 per barrel.
In terms of volume, Russia's diesel supply is merely "negligible." Trump's move appears heavily politically motivated, primarily aimed at salvaging the November midterm election by appeasing public discontent over high energy prices; it is expected to only cause a temporary dip in diesel prices and will be virtually ineffective in lowering energy prices and inflation.
First, the initial 300,000 tons of diesel equates to only half a day's consumption in the U.S. (according to IEA data, daily U.S. diesel consumption ranges between 500,000 and 600,000 tons); even the cumulative total of 800,000 tons by the end of November falls short of two days' usage. Second, the root cause driving up oil prices and inflation lies in the Strait of Hormuz crisis and Middle East geopolitical conflicts. Therefore, this diesel agreement fails to address the core issue of crude oil supply disruptions.
Although the market expects an 80% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates on October 28, the probability of a rate hike in December remains the highest among all options (71%), a sentiment that continues to support the dollar. Currently, high U.S. interest rates and Treasury yields remain the primary factor suppressing gold prices.
This Wednesday (14th), the U.S. will release the year-on-year change in September's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to provide important guidance on whether the Fed will raise rates again this year; the outcome warrants close attention. On Friday (16th), Federal Reserve Chair Walsh will deliver a speech.
*Important News*
Wednesday (14th)
20:30: U.S. September year-on-year CPI change, forecast at 3.6%, previous at 3.4%.
Thursday (15th)
20:30: U.S. September month-on-month retail sales change, forecast at 0.3%, previous at 1.2%.
Friday (16th)
11:30: Federal Reserve Chair Walsh speech
*Written at 12:50 PM, October 12, 2026
《Koco Futures Business and Market Analysis Department Head, Moses Mao》
*The signed and/or unsigned articles published in ETNet are the authors' personal opinions and do not represent ETNet's position. ETNet's role is to provide a free speech platform.
