The report noted that if the Middle East conflict becomes prolonged or further escalates, it could lead to persistently high and volatile energy and food prices, reigniting inflationary pressures, worsening fiscal and balance-of-payments conditions, and dragging down economic growth. Further disruptions to energy infrastructure, cyberattacks, or extreme weather events could amplify these impacts.
The report stated that price increases triggered by physical supply disruptions have more significant and lasting macroeconomic effects compared to those driven by geopolitical risks. (yc)