The Economic Information Daily reported on the 13th: Saudi Arabia suffered attacks by Yemen's Houthi militants for two consecutive days over the weekend, resulting in civilian casualties. Markets are concerned about escalating tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, Ukraine accused Russia of violating the energy ceasefire, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict ongoing, oil prices have rebounded again. The Hang Seng Index opened below its 10-day moving average (around 24,200) and briefly fell below the 24,000 level in early trading before recovering somewhat, but met resistance at the 10-day line. It closed the morning session at 24,176, down 95 points or 0.4%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index stood at 8,121, down 46 points or 0.6%. The Hang Seng Tech Index was at 4,105, down 64 points or 1.5%. Morning session turnover on the main board rose to nearly HK$101.8 billion, while northbound funds recorded a net inflow of about HK$600 million.
*Mak Ka-ka: Hong Kong Stocks Volatility Floor at 23,500*
Currently, with rising Middle East tensions weighing on global stock markets, Hong Kong stocks followed overseas weakness after two consecutive days of rebound. Mak Ka-ka, Head of Financial Products Trading and Research Department at Yuanta Securities (Asia), told The Economic Information Daily that Asia-Pacific stock markets will continue to affect the direction of Hong Kong stocks, and Hong Kong equities are expected to remain weak in the near term. She explained that although Hong Kong stock valuations remain low, high U.S. bond yields mean capital is no longer solely attracted by cheap valuations but pays more attention to earnings growth momentum. The earnings growth of large-cap stocks in the Hang Seng Index has failed to attract substantial capital inflows, and buying interest at lower levels is limited, making it difficult to drive the broader market higher. Although mainland China has introduced multiple market-supporting policies recently, the Hang Seng Index still lacks strong upward momentum, reflecting a predominantly cautious market sentiment. Moreover, next week's mainland GDP data may not clearly indicate stabilized economic growth, leaving Hong Kong stocks short of positive near-term prospects.
However, judging from recent fund allocation in Hong Kong stocks, technology stocks have seen larger declines, but some funds have flowed into defensive sectors such as banking stocks. Shares within the mainland banking sector have generally consolidated at higher levels, expected to provide certain support underneath Hong Kong stocks. The Hang Seng Index is expected to revolve around the 24,000-point mark, with a volatility range of approximately 500 points above and below. Mak Ka-ka added that since mainland bank stock prices are currently high and valuations are not particularly cheap, they alone cannot drive the broader market higher; more heavyweight stocks need to move together.
*Longxin's Technological Breakthrough Will Take Time to Impact Industry*
Cao Kan-yu, President of Longxin Technology, revealed at the 4th Integrated Chip and Chiplet Conference that the architecture's core is the self-developed VSG (Vertical Surrounded Gate) transistor, adopting a vertically surrounded channel structure to enhance gate control capability, suppress leakage and short-channel effects, and support miniaturization of memory cells. Compared with the current industry mainstream 6F^2 architecture, 4F^2 represents about a 33% reduction in memory cell area, allowing more memory cells to be integrated per wafer and increasing storage density.
After this news emerged, market concerns intensified over increased industry competition, dragging down memory-related stocks. Micron (US.MU) fell 3.9% on Monday, SK Hynix (US.SKHY) dropped 4%, and SanDisk (US.SNDK) also declined nearly 6%. In Hong Kong, memory-related概念股 also fell: GigaDevice (03986) dropped 3.3%, closing at HK$363.2; XL Two South Hynix (07709) plunged 18.2%, closing at HK$26.04; XL Two Samsung (07747) fell 16.5%, closing at HK$55.72.
Mak Ka-ka believes that there is a regional divergence between domestic and foreign memory technologies, so Longxin's progress may not directly impact U.S. stocks. However, Longxin's stock price had already priced in order and technology-related positives ahead of time, so the news had limited stimulating effect. The market is mainly concerned about continuously intensifying industry competition, which could compress profit margins of related companies and limit high valuations, leading to significant pullbacks in U.S. memory-related stocks.
She emphasized that there is market consensus expecting supply bottlenecks to gradually ease, and investors have begun assessing the impact of Chinese manufacturers on the global supply landscape. However, Longxin's current progress only reflects future competitiveness assessments and does not prove that short-term supply will significantly increase or trigger a price war. There remains a time lag from technological advancement to mass production, and there is still no precise launch date for DDR5 and others. In the short term, the memory market will mainly maintain its existing structure, with memory chip prices remaining high. The market is merely pricing in the possibility of future competition heating up.
However, given that U.S. long-term bond yields are gradually rising to higher levels, memory sector valuations are significantly affected by discount rates under high valuations and elevated U.S. bond yields. Fund flows are changing, and investors are becoming more cautious. Today's sharp declines in heavyweight South Korean stocks SK Hynix and Samsung reflect this sentiment. Additionally, the market has started pricing in whether the memory cycle is gradually peaking. Although the actual peak in related sectors may occur between 2027 and 2028, since stock markets often lead, related stocks may face share price pressure over the medium to long term.
As for Hong Kong-listed memory概念股 GigaDevice (03986), its stock price is also expected to weaken further in the near term. Compared to the past environment where "AI stories" alone could attract capital, the market now places greater emphasis on earnings and free cash flow, leading to reduced buying interest in such stocks. Although GigaDevice's stock price has recently fallen to levels near those seen in April this year, given the sector's ongoing correction trend, it is difficult to estimate the bottom. Mak Ka-ka advises investors to remain cautious and avoid rushing into positions. (am)
*Mak Ka-ka: Hong Kong Stocks Volatility Floor at 23,500*
Currently, with rising Middle East tensions weighing on global stock markets, Hong Kong stocks followed overseas weakness after two consecutive days of rebound. Mak Ka-ka, Head of Financial Products Trading and Research Department at Yuanta Securities (Asia), told The Economic Information Daily that Asia-Pacific stock markets will continue to affect the direction of Hong Kong stocks, and Hong Kong equities are expected to remain weak in the near term. She explained that although Hong Kong stock valuations remain low, high U.S. bond yields mean capital is no longer solely attracted by cheap valuations but pays more attention to earnings growth momentum. The earnings growth of large-cap stocks in the Hang Seng Index has failed to attract substantial capital inflows, and buying interest at lower levels is limited, making it difficult to drive the broader market higher. Although mainland China has introduced multiple market-supporting policies recently, the Hang Seng Index still lacks strong upward momentum, reflecting a predominantly cautious market sentiment. Moreover, next week's mainland GDP data may not clearly indicate stabilized economic growth, leaving Hong Kong stocks short of positive near-term prospects.
However, judging from recent fund allocation in Hong Kong stocks, technology stocks have seen larger declines, but some funds have flowed into defensive sectors such as banking stocks. Shares within the mainland banking sector have generally consolidated at higher levels, expected to provide certain support underneath Hong Kong stocks. The Hang Seng Index is expected to revolve around the 24,000-point mark, with a volatility range of approximately 500 points above and below. Mak Ka-ka added that since mainland bank stock prices are currently high and valuations are not particularly cheap, they alone cannot drive the broader market higher; more heavyweight stocks need to move together.
*Longxin's Technological Breakthrough Will Take Time to Impact Industry*
Cao Kan-yu, President of Longxin Technology, revealed at the 4th Integrated Chip and Chiplet Conference that the architecture's core is the self-developed VSG (Vertical Surrounded Gate) transistor, adopting a vertically surrounded channel structure to enhance gate control capability, suppress leakage and short-channel effects, and support miniaturization of memory cells. Compared with the current industry mainstream 6F^2 architecture, 4F^2 represents about a 33% reduction in memory cell area, allowing more memory cells to be integrated per wafer and increasing storage density.
After this news emerged, market concerns intensified over increased industry competition, dragging down memory-related stocks. Micron (US.MU) fell 3.9% on Monday, SK Hynix (US.SKHY) dropped 4%, and SanDisk (US.SNDK) also declined nearly 6%. In Hong Kong, memory-related概念股 also fell: GigaDevice (03986) dropped 3.3%, closing at HK$363.2; XL Two South Hynix (07709) plunged 18.2%, closing at HK$26.04; XL Two Samsung (07747) fell 16.5%, closing at HK$55.72.
Mak Ka-ka believes that there is a regional divergence between domestic and foreign memory technologies, so Longxin's progress may not directly impact U.S. stocks. However, Longxin's stock price had already priced in order and technology-related positives ahead of time, so the news had limited stimulating effect. The market is mainly concerned about continuously intensifying industry competition, which could compress profit margins of related companies and limit high valuations, leading to significant pullbacks in U.S. memory-related stocks.
She emphasized that there is market consensus expecting supply bottlenecks to gradually ease, and investors have begun assessing the impact of Chinese manufacturers on the global supply landscape. However, Longxin's current progress only reflects future competitiveness assessments and does not prove that short-term supply will significantly increase or trigger a price war. There remains a time lag from technological advancement to mass production, and there is still no precise launch date for DDR5 and others. In the short term, the memory market will mainly maintain its existing structure, with memory chip prices remaining high. The market is merely pricing in the possibility of future competition heating up.
However, given that U.S. long-term bond yields are gradually rising to higher levels, memory sector valuations are significantly affected by discount rates under high valuations and elevated U.S. bond yields. Fund flows are changing, and investors are becoming more cautious. Today's sharp declines in heavyweight South Korean stocks SK Hynix and Samsung reflect this sentiment. Additionally, the market has started pricing in whether the memory cycle is gradually peaking. Although the actual peak in related sectors may occur between 2027 and 2028, since stock markets often lead, related stocks may face share price pressure over the medium to long term.
As for Hong Kong-listed memory概念股 GigaDevice (03986), its stock price is also expected to weaken further in the near term. Compared to the past environment where "AI stories" alone could attract capital, the market now places greater emphasis on earnings and free cash flow, leading to reduced buying interest in such stocks. Although GigaDevice's stock price has recently fallen to levels near those seen in April this year, given the sector's ongoing correction trend, it is difficult to estimate the bottom. Mak Ka-ka advises investors to remain cautious and avoid rushing into positions. (am)
