The Expert's View: Yesterday morning (13th), the Hang Seng Index opened 99 points lower, then plunged sharply, with the decline widening at one point to over 280 points. During trading, it briefly lost the 24,000 level, but later stabilized and rebounded intermittently in the afternoon, closing at the day's highest level of 24,345 points, up 74 points or 0.3%. The main board turnover was HK$187.566 billion; the Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 4,136 points, down 32 points or 0.79%; the H-share Index closed at 8,174 points, up 6 points or 0.08%.
*If the index fails to effectively return above and stabilize above the 10-day moving average, the short-term outlook for the Hang Seng Index remains vulnerable*
The Hong Kong stock market continues to weaken. Although northbound funds returned after the National Day holiday, the sharp decline last week was clearly followed by a rebound pattern, but overall trading volume has not substantially supported the rebound. Since August, the Hang Seng Index has been moving downward along a downward sloping channel. Currently, the upper resistance is around 24,600 points, while the lower support is near 23,600 points (not an iron bottom). Clearly, this thousand-point declining range is continuously moving downward, reflecting that the market has not yet escaped the bottom-finding predicament. In my personal opinion, Tony, until the market effectively returns above and stabilizes above the 10-day moving average, the index remains vulnerable in the short term and may at any time test the 22,800 level again, or even further seek a bottom. The Hang Seng Index has recently tested the support level of 23,920 points multiple times. Although a slight rebound is currently seen, under the continued overhang of external uncertainties, the short-term rebound may just be a "dead cat bounce." As for the external environment, although U.S. Treasury yields have started to retreat from their highs, providing some relief to global investment markets, overall investor sentiment has not shown a significant genuine improvement. {Senior Independent Stock Analyst, PhD Candidate, Ho Chi Ming}
*The signed and/or unsigned articles published in {Economic Information} represent the personal opinions of the authors and do not represent the stance of {Economic Information}. {Economic Information} plays the role of providing a free speech platform.
*If the index fails to effectively return above and stabilize above the 10-day moving average, the short-term outlook for the Hang Seng Index remains vulnerable*
The Hong Kong stock market continues to weaken. Although northbound funds returned after the National Day holiday, the sharp decline last week was clearly followed by a rebound pattern, but overall trading volume has not substantially supported the rebound. Since August, the Hang Seng Index has been moving downward along a downward sloping channel. Currently, the upper resistance is around 24,600 points, while the lower support is near 23,600 points (not an iron bottom). Clearly, this thousand-point declining range is continuously moving downward, reflecting that the market has not yet escaped the bottom-finding predicament. In my personal opinion, Tony, until the market effectively returns above and stabilizes above the 10-day moving average, the index remains vulnerable in the short term and may at any time test the 22,800 level again, or even further seek a bottom. The Hang Seng Index has recently tested the support level of 23,920 points multiple times. Although a slight rebound is currently seen, under the continued overhang of external uncertainties, the short-term rebound may just be a "dead cat bounce." As for the external environment, although U.S. Treasury yields have started to retreat from their highs, providing some relief to global investment markets, overall investor sentiment has not shown a significant genuine improvement. {Senior Independent Stock Analyst, PhD Candidate, Ho Chi Ming}
*The signed and/or unsigned articles published in {Economic Information} represent the personal opinions of the authors and do not represent the stance of {Economic Information}. {Economic Information} plays the role of providing a free speech platform.
