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15/07/2025 12:46

High probability of rate cut in September

  [ET Net News Agency, 15 July 2025] Mainland China's second-quarter GDP grew 5.2% year-on-year, better than market expectations. Industrial output for June rose by 6.8% year-on-year, reaching a three-month high. However, retail sales growth slowed to 4.8% year-on-year, below the Reuters survey median and marking a four-month low. The Hong Kong market reacted mildly, with investors awaiting US CPI data to be released tonight. The HSI dipped and rebounded during the session, closing the morning at 24,250, up 47 points or 0.2%, with main board turnover close to HKD 144 billion. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index was at 8,741, up 8 points or 0.1%. The Hang Seng Tech Index stood at 5,305, up 21 points or 0.4%.

Kung Wai Ting: "National team" has entered the market, making sharp downturns unlikely for Hong Kong stocks

  During this period of sideways consolidation, short-term trading is dominating the Hong Kong market. The HSI was briefly pushed above the 24,500 level in early trading, but then reversed in a pattern similar to last Friday, at one point dipping to 24,125 and ending the morning with a gain of less than 100 points. Kung Wai Ting, the Chief Investment Officer of China Asset Management (Hong Kong), told ET Net News Agency that with the renminbi exchange rate stabilising and US stocks performing well, there are few major negative factors in the short term. He expects Hong Kong stocks are still in a healthy correction phase. The biggest risk lies in early August, if US President Trump adopts a tougher-than-expected stance on tariffs, it could trigger a "black swan" event for equities. Otherwise, the market has already priced in moderate tariff measures, and Kung expects the HSI to find support at 23,500.
  Kung remains optimistic about the outlook. First, the probability of a rate cut in September has increased, which he believes will gradually strengthen the market's underlying support. Second, as turnover on the Hong Kong market has consistently stayed around HKD 200 billion, he sees this as a sign that the "national team" (state-backed funds) is already actively participating. He does not believe that the current sideways trend will lead to heavy selling.

Stablecoins remain a key theme, but further upside may be limited

  Stablecoin-themed stocks have been hotly traded. This morning, news emerged that CMB International, under China Merchants Securities (06099), was granted a virtual asset licence by the SFC yesterday, becoming the first mainland bank-affiliated broker to receive such a licence. CMB Securities opened 15% higher but quickly pared gains, with other stablecoin concept stocks also pulling back, sparking concerns about profit-taking. Kung Wai Ting admitted that while the stablecoin theme has been very hot, with many related stocks doubling in a short period, the excitement may begin to cool as more licences are issued, leaving limited room for further rapid gains. He cited US-listed Circle as an example: its share price has been moving sideways recently, and Kung expects profit-taking to emerge in the sector.
  However, he believes that after a period of consolidation, stablecoins will remain a key area for government-driven development. Positive policy news can still benefit related stocks, but whether they can repeat this recent surge is uncertain. Investors should be mindful of increased volatility if trading these themes again.
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