[ET Net News Agency, 15 October 2025] Lingering China-US trade war concerns continue to weigh on financial markets. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has suggested the Fed may stop reducing its balance sheet in the coming months. Although US President Trump has threatened to ban exports of edible oil to China in retaliation for China not purchasing US soybeans, this did not prevent the HSI from rebounding this morning, reaching a high of 25,870. At midday, the HSI was up 308 points or 1.2 percent at 25,749, with main board turnover exceeding HKD 15.86 billion. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 101 points or 1.1 percent to 9,180, while the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 69 points or 1.2 percent to 5,992.
"Nip Chun Pong: Both sides seeking leverage ahead of talks, HSI to remain range-bound in the short term"
The HSI has fallen for seven consecutive trading days, dropping 1,940 points from its high on 2 Oct to yesterday (14 Apr). This morning's strong open and rebound of around 400 points is seen as a technical correction. Nip Chun Pong, the Chief Strategist at Blackwell Global Securities, told ET Net News Agency that after several days of declines, today's move is a technical rebound. Although the US recently softened its trade war stance, indicating tariffs on China may not rise to 100 percent and that a China-US leaders' meeting is possible, US President Trump's fresh threat to ban edible oil exports to China has added new uncertainty ahead of the meeting at the end of the month. Nip Chun Pong expects both sides to continue manoeuvring for leverage before negotiations, so the shadow of the China-US trade war will continue to affect the market. He forecasts that the HSI will remain volatile and largely range-bound between 25,500 and 26,200. However, if the HSI can hold above the 50-day moving average (around 25,841) by Friday, the outlook could improve.
"AI is a lasting trend, no bubble in leading Hong Kong AI stocks"
Wall Street has recently shown concern about an AI bubble. Following earlier warnings from the IMF and Bank of England, there are doubts over whether AI investment can deliver corresponding profits. According to the latest Bank of America monthly survey, 54 percent of fund managers now believe technology stock valuations are too high, up from less than 50 percent last month. They identify an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble as the biggest tail risk, followed by resurgent inflation, a loss of Fed independence, and US dollar depreciation.
Nip Chun Pong believes AI development is a lasting trend, with strong market demand for new AI products. Many AI companies have recently launched new products, for example, Google's Nano Banana, and ChatGPT's Sora2, which became the top download just one week after launch. AI product innovation continues to draw attention, and whether products can be monetised depends on each company's strengths. At the industry level, there is no immediate risk of an AI bubble bursting, though some companies may fall behind if their fundamentals cannot keep pace with share price gains.
He also noted that Wall Street's concerns over an AI bubble are mainly focused on US companies. At present, Hong Kong-listed AI stocks remain undervalued compared to US peers. Google currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of about 26 times, Microsoft is at 37 times, while Alibaba (09988) is around 20 times, Kuaishou (01024) is under 20 times, and Baidu (09888) is only 12 times. Therefore, there is no sign of a bubble in Hong Kong AI stocks for now. However, these shares have rallied sharply this year, both Alibaba and Kuaishou have doubled, and Baidu has jumped as much as 90 percent from its low, leading to some profit-taking. Still, the pullback in these three shares has so far been less than 20 percent, which is considered a healthy correction. Nip Chun Pong believes that the performance of AI stocks will continue to track the broader market. For example, as long as the HSI holds above its 50-day moving average, Alibaba is expected to find support at HKD 155.
"Nip Chun Pong: Both sides seeking leverage ahead of talks, HSI to remain range-bound in the short term"
The HSI has fallen for seven consecutive trading days, dropping 1,940 points from its high on 2 Oct to yesterday (14 Apr). This morning's strong open and rebound of around 400 points is seen as a technical correction. Nip Chun Pong, the Chief Strategist at Blackwell Global Securities, told ET Net News Agency that after several days of declines, today's move is a technical rebound. Although the US recently softened its trade war stance, indicating tariffs on China may not rise to 100 percent and that a China-US leaders' meeting is possible, US President Trump's fresh threat to ban edible oil exports to China has added new uncertainty ahead of the meeting at the end of the month. Nip Chun Pong expects both sides to continue manoeuvring for leverage before negotiations, so the shadow of the China-US trade war will continue to affect the market. He forecasts that the HSI will remain volatile and largely range-bound between 25,500 and 26,200. However, if the HSI can hold above the 50-day moving average (around 25,841) by Friday, the outlook could improve.
"AI is a lasting trend, no bubble in leading Hong Kong AI stocks"
Wall Street has recently shown concern about an AI bubble. Following earlier warnings from the IMF and Bank of England, there are doubts over whether AI investment can deliver corresponding profits. According to the latest Bank of America monthly survey, 54 percent of fund managers now believe technology stock valuations are too high, up from less than 50 percent last month. They identify an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble as the biggest tail risk, followed by resurgent inflation, a loss of Fed independence, and US dollar depreciation.
Nip Chun Pong believes AI development is a lasting trend, with strong market demand for new AI products. Many AI companies have recently launched new products, for example, Google's Nano Banana, and ChatGPT's Sora2, which became the top download just one week after launch. AI product innovation continues to draw attention, and whether products can be monetised depends on each company's strengths. At the industry level, there is no immediate risk of an AI bubble bursting, though some companies may fall behind if their fundamentals cannot keep pace with share price gains.
He also noted that Wall Street's concerns over an AI bubble are mainly focused on US companies. At present, Hong Kong-listed AI stocks remain undervalued compared to US peers. Google currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of about 26 times, Microsoft is at 37 times, while Alibaba (09988) is around 20 times, Kuaishou (01024) is under 20 times, and Baidu (09888) is only 12 times. Therefore, there is no sign of a bubble in Hong Kong AI stocks for now. However, these shares have rallied sharply this year, both Alibaba and Kuaishou have doubled, and Baidu has jumped as much as 90 percent from its low, leading to some profit-taking. Still, the pullback in these three shares has so far been less than 20 percent, which is considered a healthy correction. Nip Chun Pong believes that the performance of AI stocks will continue to track the broader market. For example, as long as the HSI holds above its 50-day moving average, Alibaba is expected to find support at HKD 155.