[ET Net News Agency, 11 March 2026] US President Trump has again sent signals of
willingness to negotiate with Iran, yet meanwhile, the US-Israeli coalition has
intensified its air strikes on the country. The market has turned more cautious on the
Iran situation, leaving overnight US equities relatively flat, while most Asia-Pacific
markets advanced. In Hong Kong, stocks initially rode the AI-driven "Lobster" tech
momentum, with the Hang Seng Index pushing past 26,000 in early trading, though this
resistance proved significant and the level was not held. At midday, the HSI closed at
25,981, up just 21 points or less than 0.1%, with main board turnover at nearly HKD 147.5
billion. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 14 points (0.2%) to 8,724, while the
Hang Seng Tech Index gained 13 points (0.3%) to finish at 5,073.

"Lee Wai Kit: Market sentiment has improved, but HSI must first get through the weekend;
oil below USD 85 is more favourable"

US equities saw gains erased in late trading, but the rebound in Hong Kong remained
resilient, with the HSI opening over 100 points higher and oscillating around the 26,000
mark. Lee Wai Kit, a financial commentator of TF International, told ET Net News Agency
that the next resistance for the HSI is at 26,300, corresponding to the earlier
head-and-shoulders neckline level. Looking ahead, he stressed that a clearer outlook will
only emerge after passing the weekend's test, as US military action against Iran typically
occurs over weekends. If this weekend passes smoothly and conflict concerns lessen, only
then will Hong Kong's market prospects brighten.
Lee also cited oil prices as a key barometer for market direction, if oil stays below
USD 85 per barrel, inflation risks from the US-Iran conflict should ease, giving equities
further room to recover.

"High threshold for 'Lobster' adoption, patience needed for market maturity, privacy and
runaway risks remain"

A global wave of OpenClaw adoption has swept the market recently. Tencent (00700) was
the first in China to launch its own OpenClaw AI WorkBuddy, dubbed the "Tencent Lobster."
The service's overwhelming popularity propelled Tencent shares to a 7% surge yesterday.
Today, more Chinese tech firms jumped aboard the "Lobster concept," including Baidu
(09888), Lenovo (00992), and Knowledge Atlas (02513), who released their versions or
integrations with the original OpenClaw. Even hardware giant Nvidia reportedly has plans
to develop its own "Lobster" product. Lee Wai Kit expects Lobster to lead a new AI theme
this year, but warns that amid the initial market frenzy, the Ministry of Industry and
Information Technology (MIIT) in China has already issued statements about safety
concerns, ranging from personal data privacy to risks of automated "runaway" and financial
loss. At this stage, such technology is more suitable for developers and tech pioneers;
mainstream users may be unable to operate the technology securely. Only when the
technology stabilises and gains clear commercial application prospects will broader
adoption follow.
Additionally, Lee points out that OpenClaw differs from earlier generative AI or
DeepSeek surges: whereas users would actively engage and provide input with generative
models, Lobster operates automatically. This means significant "training" is needed for
each user's preferences, so, unlike DeepSeek's plug-and-play growth, Lobster's industry
rollout will be more measured. Lee estimates a probation period of a month or two, during
which early adopters will "take the fall," paving the way for wider adoption in the
future.

"Token purchase model boosts lobster monetisation, Tencent favoured but limited impact on
financials"

Some listed firms have begun introducing "Lobster" services. For instance, 160 Health
(02656) announced the use of OpenClaw as a digital medical employee. Is commercial
potential proven? Lee Wai Kit agrees Lobster has greater profit potential than open-source
generative AI, as the service operates on a token purchase model, users pay for computing
power from day one, immediately giving it a stronger revenue engine than AI large models.
However, with multiple tech firms carving up the market, the prospect of explosive profit
growth is limited.
For early adopter Tencent, Lee recognises the appeal of its self-developed OpenClaw AI
tool WorkBuddy, further enhanced by its robust ecosystem and talent pool. However, he
remains neutral on immediate profit impact; as Tencent's revenue and earnings base is
massive, the Lobster service is unlikely to contribute significantly in the near term, so
expectations should remain moderate.

"Tencent share buyback is a more substantial bullish factor"

Lee adds that for Tencent's share price, holding above the critical 250-day moving
average today is important, with the next hurdle at around HKD 580, previously a key
support before last month's sharp correction. At the same time, investor focus is shifting
to the upcoming quarterly results next week, as robust earnings are essential for a
sustained stock rebound. Lee highlights that, unlike custom (where buybacks are only
paused for a month ahead of earnings), Tencent halted buybacks two months in advance this
time, possibly contributing to its share price weakness. He thus looks forward to the
possibility of new buyback plans being announced alongside earnings, which would provide a
much stronger catalyst for the share price.