[ET Net News Agency, 30 March 2026] Weighed down by the ongoing Middle East conflict, US stocks were hammered on Friday (27th). Coupled with weak Hong Kong earnings, the HSI kept sliding after losing the 25,000 mark. It fell as much as 542 points to 24,409 in early trade, a one-week low, but conditions improved notably before the midday break. By lunch, the HSI had narrowed its loss to 224 points (-0.9%) at 24,727, with main board turnover above HKD 154.8 billion. The HSCEI stood at 8,393 (-0.7%). The HSTECH was 4,698 (-1.7%).
"Nip Chun Pong: Middle East tensions unlikely to end soon; HSI trend remains weak"
With tensions in the Middle East escalating, Asia-Pacific stocks tumbled this morning, Japan down 4%, Korea down 3%. The HSI opened more than 400 points lower but thankfully stabilized before midday. Nip Chun Pong, the Chief Strategist at Solo Securities, told ET Net News Agency that as the Middle East situation deteriorates, international oil prices have surged. After NYMEX crude broke above USD 100 per barrel last Friday, it climbed again in Asian hours this morning, hitting as high as USD 103. He noted that the chance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz is slim; US President Trump's earlier hope to ship oil through the strait is unlikely to materialize in the short term. Elevated oil prices not only weigh on the global economy but also on the US midterm elections, adding uncertainty for both the US and the world.
Nip pointed out that the heavy concentration of bull CBBC positions is currently clustered in three 100-point bands from 24,000 to 24,299, totalling around 3,000 contracts, close to today's low. The HSI rebounded after last week's decline but faded again on geopolitics, so he expects the index to remain headline-driven by the Middle East; even if it bounces, the upside should be limited. Since the conflict began, the bull CBBC heavy zone has kept retreating, from 24,800 down to 24,200. If tensions worsen further, the HSI could break last week's 24,200 low and test the 24,000 handle. Whether 24,000 holds will depend on developments and how bull CBBC positioning shifts at that time. There are reports the US is preparing to send ground troops, while Secretary of State Rubio still asserts the US can end the Middle East war within weeks. Nip sees that as unlikely. Near term the HSI trend is weak, and short-term trading remains risky.
"Iranian strikes hit two major Middle East aluminium bases; Chalco leads on high sensitivity to aluminium prices"
Iran attacked two ultra-large aluminium production sites in the Middle East, sending aluminium prices surging in early trading Monday. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), the region's largest aluminium producer, confirmed that its Abu Dhabi facility suffered severe damage; reports put its 2025 aluminium casting output at 1.6 million tonnes. Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) also said it is assessing damage to its facilities. On the LME, aluminium spiked as much as 6% intraday to USD 3,492 per tonne.
Riding the jump in aluminium, related stocks rallied against the market. Chalco (02600) rose as much as nearly 9%; China Hongqiao (01378) up almost 7% at one point, though gains later eased to around 4%. Nanshan Al (02610) and Rusal (00486) also advanced. Nip said that while Chalco reported y/y increases in both net profit and revenue, the growth was not huge; even with a near-9% lift in the final dividend, it was the sharp rise in international aluminium prices that really propelled the stock. Because Chalco's earnings are more sensitive to aluminium prices, it's reasonable that it led peers today.
Nip noted that the Middle East is an important supplier of aluminium products. With the situation deteriorating, not only exports but production itself has been disrupted, tightening global supply. Unless there's a reversal in the region, aluminium prices are likely to stay firm in the short term.
From a fundamentals perspective, China Hongqiao and Chalco currently trade at about 13-14x P/E, similar levels, but Hongqiao offers a higher dividend yield. Hongqiao has fallen roughly 13% from its early-year high around HKD 41, with last week's low near HKD 30; it has since rebounded more than 10%, now about 17% below its year-start high. By contrast, Chalco has dropped about 25% from its early-year peak near HKD 15.5. Given its higher sensitivity to aluminium prices, if international aluminium remains strong, Chalco likely has greater upside potential.
"Nip Chun Pong: Middle East tensions unlikely to end soon; HSI trend remains weak"
With tensions in the Middle East escalating, Asia-Pacific stocks tumbled this morning, Japan down 4%, Korea down 3%. The HSI opened more than 400 points lower but thankfully stabilized before midday. Nip Chun Pong, the Chief Strategist at Solo Securities, told ET Net News Agency that as the Middle East situation deteriorates, international oil prices have surged. After NYMEX crude broke above USD 100 per barrel last Friday, it climbed again in Asian hours this morning, hitting as high as USD 103. He noted that the chance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz is slim; US President Trump's earlier hope to ship oil through the strait is unlikely to materialize in the short term. Elevated oil prices not only weigh on the global economy but also on the US midterm elections, adding uncertainty for both the US and the world.
Nip pointed out that the heavy concentration of bull CBBC positions is currently clustered in three 100-point bands from 24,000 to 24,299, totalling around 3,000 contracts, close to today's low. The HSI rebounded after last week's decline but faded again on geopolitics, so he expects the index to remain headline-driven by the Middle East; even if it bounces, the upside should be limited. Since the conflict began, the bull CBBC heavy zone has kept retreating, from 24,800 down to 24,200. If tensions worsen further, the HSI could break last week's 24,200 low and test the 24,000 handle. Whether 24,000 holds will depend on developments and how bull CBBC positioning shifts at that time. There are reports the US is preparing to send ground troops, while Secretary of State Rubio still asserts the US can end the Middle East war within weeks. Nip sees that as unlikely. Near term the HSI trend is weak, and short-term trading remains risky.
"Iranian strikes hit two major Middle East aluminium bases; Chalco leads on high sensitivity to aluminium prices"
Iran attacked two ultra-large aluminium production sites in the Middle East, sending aluminium prices surging in early trading Monday. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), the region's largest aluminium producer, confirmed that its Abu Dhabi facility suffered severe damage; reports put its 2025 aluminium casting output at 1.6 million tonnes. Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) also said it is assessing damage to its facilities. On the LME, aluminium spiked as much as 6% intraday to USD 3,492 per tonne.
Riding the jump in aluminium, related stocks rallied against the market. Chalco (02600) rose as much as nearly 9%; China Hongqiao (01378) up almost 7% at one point, though gains later eased to around 4%. Nanshan Al (02610) and Rusal (00486) also advanced. Nip said that while Chalco reported y/y increases in both net profit and revenue, the growth was not huge; even with a near-9% lift in the final dividend, it was the sharp rise in international aluminium prices that really propelled the stock. Because Chalco's earnings are more sensitive to aluminium prices, it's reasonable that it led peers today.
Nip noted that the Middle East is an important supplier of aluminium products. With the situation deteriorating, not only exports but production itself has been disrupted, tightening global supply. Unless there's a reversal in the region, aluminium prices are likely to stay firm in the short term.
From a fundamentals perspective, China Hongqiao and Chalco currently trade at about 13-14x P/E, similar levels, but Hongqiao offers a higher dividend yield. Hongqiao has fallen roughly 13% from its early-year high around HKD 41, with last week's low near HKD 30; it has since rebounded more than 10%, now about 17% below its year-start high. By contrast, Chalco has dropped about 25% from its early-year peak near HKD 15.5. Given its higher sensitivity to aluminium prices, if international aluminium remains strong, Chalco likely has greater upside potential.