[ET Net News Agency, 19 July 2018] With the government's strict guidance on
installation, Daiwa Research forecast China's new solar capacity to be 35GW this year (34%
YoY decline from 53GW in 2017), including 5GW of top-runner projects, 4-8GW of poverty
alleviation projects, 10GW of DG projects and 8GW of ordinary utility-scale projects.
Meanwhile, installation quota for 2019-20 remains largely unclear, said the research
house.
Daiwa said current polysilicon price has fallen to US$11.1/kg, almost the industry's
average cash cost. However, as industry leaders including GCL Poly (03800) and Tongwei
(Shanghai code: 600438) are still commissioning lower-cost capacities (90ktpa, 17%
additional supply) in 2H, Daiwa thinks polysilicon prices may still have further downside.
It reiterated its negative stance on the solar sector due to pressure on ASP and
margins, and policy uncertainty for 2019-20. (KL)