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02238 GAC GROUP
RTNominal unchange8.070 0.000 (0.000%)
Research Report

26/06/2019 14:04

[I-bank focus]China auto sector short-lived re-rating ends

[ET Net News Agency, 26 June 2019] Citi Research believes the short-lived China auto
sector rally from very strong June retail sales due to NS5 retail demand front-loading
before policy change from July has ended.
Overall the research house believes the market has priced in June PV insurance retail
sales (exclude import) to be 1.68mn units, up 12.6%.
By assuming 450k units PV retail sales has been front-loaded into May/June with a 3
months payback time being spread evenly in 3Q, Citi expects July/August/September PV
insurance retail sales at -17.7%, -13.5%, and -8.7%, and worse than March/April/May's
-9%/-6.3%/-3%.
Citi said this should trigger (1) further earnings cut into 2H; (2) valuation downside
pressures from uncertain pricing, margin, and volume visibility into 2020 - That's said,
Citi believes long-term re-rating condition is not ready yet even without considering the
huge earnings downside risks from 1H result from price cut and incentive hikes. (KL)

Remark: Real time quote last updated: 21/10/2019 10:35
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