[ET Net News Agency, 20 January 2021] Morgan Stanley raised its target price for Nongfu
Spring (09633) to HK$46 from HK$33 and but downgraded its rating to "underweight" from
"equal-weight" as the stock's price has rallied 77% over the past four months.
The research house expects Nongfu sales to fall 5.5% in 2020 (-5% in 2H versus -6% in
1H). Morgan expects a 4% decline in packaged water in 2020 as small bottled water sales
were under pressure in 2H given abnormal outdoor traffic, while channel inventory remains
lean.
It expects tea beverages to recover growth in 2H, while juice and functional drinks'
recovery should be relatively slower (still down) given the late CNY and Covid-19 impact.
But Morgan expects sales growth to recover to 19% in 2021 after demand normalizes
(versus 17% in 2018-19) and relatively stable OPM and NPM. (KL)