[ET Net News Agency, 12 March 2020] Credit Suisse lowered its target price for CNOOC
(00883) to HK$7 from HK$16.2 and downgraded its rating to "underperform" from
"outperform".
The research house cuts Brent oil price forecast to US$42/$50 for 2020/21 (from
US$63/$65) and expects oil prices to remain under pressure next several quarters, as
demand destruction from the coronavirus outbreak is accompanied by the break-down of OPEC+
cartel and subsequent price war by Saudi Arabia & Russia.
At US$42/bbl, Credit Suisse thinks CNOOC would struggle to maintain positive FCF (free
cash flow) in 2020 - the first year where CNOOC would reach negative FCF since its
listing. Its capex is now 66% higher versus 2016, and there's limited room to
significantly reduce 2020 capex spend given its new project pipeline, added the research
house. (KL)