[ET Net News Agency, 8 July 2019] HSBC Global Research raised its target price for CSPC
Pharmaceutical (01093) to HK$19.8 from HK$19.2 and maintained its "buy" rating.
The research house said CSPC's Oulaining, with RMB1.7bn in annual sales in 2018, is
included in the first National Drug Monitor List (NDML), but HSBC remains bullish on the
company's full-year results due to further market penetration of current blockbuster drugs
and the sales ramp-up of new products hitting the market in 2H and beyond.
After factoring a potential sharp revenue decline for Oulaining in 2020 into its
forecast, HSBC now expects a net profit CAGR of 24% for CSPC over 2019-21. It believes
investors are over-concerned about patent expiry for NBP (a butylphthalide injection) and
pipeline product delays beyond 2022.
HSBC cut its sales forecasts by 6% for 2019, 4.8% for 2020 and 2.3% for 2021 to factor
in the likely slide of Oulaining sales post-NDML. It lowered its net profit forecasts by
3.9% for 2019 and 1.5% for 2020. (KL)