[ET Net News Agency, 20 September 2018] Citi Research lowered its target price for Nine
Dragons Paper (NDP)(02689) to HK$15.5 from HK$23, and maintained its "buy" rating.
The research house reduced its earnings estimates by 12-13% in FY2019-20 owing to (1)
slowing retail sales growth in China; (2) later-than-expected ASP hike for 3Q 2018 though
the peak season; and (3) sustained RMB weakness due to trade war.
Citi expects earnings may retreat by 13% in FY2019 for high base on record high earnings
in FY2018 and more industry new supply in 2H 2018. That said, earnings should resume
positive growth at 9% CAGR in FY2020-21 on better industry supply/demand dynamic given
leaders NDP/Lee and Man Paper (02314) have limited new line additions from 2020. (KL)