[ET Net News Agency, 22 July 2019] Jefferies Research believes China's plans to force
coal prices lower is finally gaining traction as raw coal output is surging, demand is
falling, and inventories are piling up at all nodes.
The research house thinks industrial cost reduction necessitated by the trade war has
finally forced recalcitrant provinces to release capacity.
Jefferies believes long-term QHD benchmark coal prices will settle below QHD500/ton by
mid-2020. It estimated that coal demand will fall by 100 mtpa every year to 2025 and that
more than 300 mpta of new low-cost capacity will come on-stream in the next two years.
Name Rating Target Price
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China Coal (01898) Hold HK$3.40 from HK$3.55
China Shenhua (01088) Underperform HK$14.00 from HK$16.5
Yanzhou Coal (01171) Underperform HK$6.00 from HK$6.05